{"id":1917,"date":"2014-02-19T02:02:12","date_gmt":"2014-02-19T02:02:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/?p=1917"},"modified":"2014-09-03T18:13:05","modified_gmt":"2014-09-03T18:13:05","slug":"2011-cap-i-v-inversion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/?p=1917","title":{"rendered":"INVERSI?N"},"content":{"rendered":"

1.5\u00a0INVERSI\u00d3N<\/h1>\n

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La\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0es\u00a0uno\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0agregados\u00a0macroecon\u00f3micos\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0importantes\u00a0en\u00a0un\u00a0pa\u00eds,\u00a0pues\u00a0refleja\u00a0el grado\u00a0de\u00a0confianza\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0empresarios\u00a0sobre\u00a0la\u00a0marcha\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda,\u00a0la\u00a0ampliaci\u00f3n\u00a0y\/o\u00a0sostenimiento\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0capacidad\u00a0productiva,\u00a0los\u00a0desarrollos\u00a0y\u00a0puesta\u00a0en\u00a0marcha\u00a0de\u00a0nuevas\u00a0actividades,\u00a0etc.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

No\u00a0existe\u00a0un\u00a0consenso\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0literatura\u00a0econ\u00f3mica\u00a0ni\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0trabajos\u00a0de\u00a0base\u00a0emp\u00edrica\u00a0acerca\u00a0de\u00a0cu\u00e1l es\u00a0el\u00a0nivel\u00a0de\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0(medido\u00a0como\u00a0%\u00a0del\u00a0PBI)\u00a0deseable\u00a0para\u00a0alcanzar\u00a0un\u00a0alto\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0econ\u00f3mico,<\/p>\n

\u00a0puesto\u00a0que\u00a0depende\u00a0en\u00a0buena\u00a0medida\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0caracter\u00edsticas\u00a0propias\u00a0de\u00a0cada\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0y\u00a0de\u00a0la composici\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0misma.\u00a0 En\u00a0Argentina\u00a0la\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0es\u00a0una\u00a0variable\u00a0sumamente\u00a0vol\u00e1til\u00a0puesto\u00a0que\u00a0depende\u00a0en\u00a0gran\u00a0medida\u00a0de los\u00a0efectos\u00a0del\u00a0ciclo\u00a0econ\u00f3mico,\u00a0y\u00a0adem\u00e1s\u00a0presenta\u00a0un\u00a0fuerte\u00a0componente\u00a0proc\u00edclico,\u00a0es\u00a0decir\u00a0que aumenta\u00a0a\u00a0medida\u00a0que\u00a0crece\u00a0el\u00a0producto,\u00a0y\u00a0disminuye\u00a0cuando\u00a0este\u00a0decrece.\u00a0Adem\u00e1s\u00a0se\u00a0ve\u00a0sumamente\u00a0afectada\u00a0por\u00a0las\u00a0tasas\u00a0de\u00a0inter\u00e9s\u00a0que\u00a0operan\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0conjunto\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda,\u00a0es\u00a0decir\u00a0por\u00a0el\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

comportamiento\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0dep\u00f3sitos\u00a0y\u00a0del\u00a0gobierno\u00a0en\u00a0cuanto\u00a0a\u00a0las\u00a0l\u00edneas\u00a0de\u00a0cr\u00e9dito\u00a0que\u00a0otorgue.<\/p>\n

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\u00a0La\u00a0recuperaci\u00f3n\u00a0tras\u00a0los\u00a0cuatro\u00a0trimestres\u00a0consecutivos\u00a0de\u00a0baja\u00a0(desde\u00a0el\u00a0segundo\u00a0de\u00a02008\u00a0hasta\u00a0el primero\u00a0de\u00a02009),\u00a0se\u00a0produjo\u00a0a\u00a0partir\u00a0del\u00a0segundo\u00a0trimestre\u00a0de\u00a02009\u00a0y\u00a0a\u00a0pesar\u00a0de\u00a0alguna\u00a0leve\u00a0ca\u00edda espor\u00e1dica\u00a0sostuvo\u00a0una\u00a0tendencia\u00a0creciente\u00a0hasta\u00a0el\u00a0segundo\u00a0trimestre\u00a0de\u00a02011\u00a0alcanzando\u00a0el\u00a0m\u00e1ximo valor\u00a0para\u00a0todo\u00a0el\u00a0per\u00edodo\u00a0con\u00a0un\u00a024,4%\u00a0del\u00a0PBI.\u00a0Durante\u00a0los\u00a0\u00faltimos\u00a0dos\u00a0trimestre\u00a0se\u00a0observa\u00a0un\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

decrecimiento,\u00a0aunque\u00a0los<\/span>\u00a0valores\u00a0registrados\u00a0a\u00fan\u00a0permanecen\u00a0por\u00a0encima\u00a0del\u00a0m\u00e1ximo\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a02008.\u00a0\u00a0 En\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0a\u00a0los\u00a0componentes\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0IBI,\u00a0si\u00a0bien\u00a0tanto\u00a0la\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0construcci\u00f3n\u00a0como\u00a0la\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0en equipos\u00a0durables\u00a0de\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0(EDP)\u00a0suelen\u00a0presentar\u00a0la\u00a0misma\u00a0tendencia\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0largo\u00a0plazo,\u00a0es\u00a0de destacar\u00a0que\u00a0las\u00a0actividades\u00a0de\u00a0construcci\u00f3n\u00a0parecen\u00a0ser\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0estables\u00a0y\u00a0no\u00a0resultan\u00a0ser\u00a0tan\u00a0el\u00e1sticas<\/span>33<\/sup> al\u00a0ciclo\u00a0econ\u00f3mico\u00a0como\u00a0la\u00a0compra\u00a0de\u00a0equipos\u00a0durables\u00a0de\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0(en\u00a0especial\u00a0los\u00a0importados). \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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33<\/sup>\u00a0Al\u00a0ser\u00a0el\u00a0EDP\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0el\u00e1stico,\u00a0mayor\u00a0es\u00a0el\u00a0cambio\u00a0con\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0a\u00a0la\u00a0construcci\u00f3n\u00a0como\u00a0resultado\u00a0de\u00a0la<\/p>\n

variaci\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0nivel\u00a0de\u00a0actividad.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0De\u00a0cara\u00a0a\u00a0un\u00a0futuro\u00a0inmediato\u00a0es\u00a0de\u00a0esperar\u00a0que\u00a0la\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0contin\u00fae\u00a0creciendo\u00a0e\u00a0incluso\u00a0superando los\u00a0niveles\u00a0exhibidos\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0segundo\u00a0trimestre\u00a0del\u00a02011,\u00a0pero\u00a0lo\u00a0har\u00e1\u00a0a\u00a0una\u00a0tasa\u00a0posiblemente\u00a0menor de\u00a0la\u00a0que\u00a0mostr\u00f3\u00a0el\u00a0pasado\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0por\u00a0las\u00a0expectativas\u00a0de\u00a0un\u00a0menor\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0econ\u00f3mico\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0pa\u00eds. El\u00a0control\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0tasas\u00a0por\u00a0parte\u00a0del\u00a0BCRA<\/span>34<\/sup>\u00a0y\u00a0las\u00a0l\u00edneas\u00a0de\u00a0cr\u00e9dito\u00a0oficiales\u00a0seguramente\u00a0jugar\u00e1n\u00a0un rol\u00a0preponderante\u00a0en\u00a0las\u00a0oportunidades\u00a0de\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0peque\u00f1os\u00a0y\u00a0medianos\u00a0comerciantes,\u00a0y\u00a0el desarrollo\u00a0del\u00a0mercado\u00a0de\u00a0capitales\u00a0plantea\u00a0un\u00a0desaf\u00edo\u00a0a\u00a0abordar\u00a0de\u00a0cara\u00a0al\u00a0futuro.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u00a034<\/sup>\u00a0La\u00a0sigla\u00a0BCRA\u00a0se\u00a0utiliza\u00a0para\u00a0hacer\u00a0alusi\u00f3n\u00a0al\u00a0Banco\u00a0Central\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0Rep\u00fablica\u00a0Argentina.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1.5\u00a0INVERSI\u00d3N   La\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0es\u00a0uno\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0agregados\u00a0macroecon\u00f3micos\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0importantes\u00a0en\u00a0un\u00a0pa\u00eds,\u00a0pues\u00a0refleja\u00a0el grado\u00a0de\u00a0confianza\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0empresarios\u00a0sobre\u00a0la\u00a0marcha\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda,\u00a0la\u00a0ampliaci\u00f3n\u00a0y\/o\u00a0sostenimiento\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0capacidad\u00a0productiva,\u00a0los\u00a0desarrollos\u00a0y\u00a0puesta\u00a0en\u00a0marcha\u00a0de\u00a0nuevas\u00a0actividades,\u00a0etc.\u00a0 No\u00a0existe\u00a0un\u00a0consenso\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0literatura\u00a0econ\u00f3mica\u00a0ni\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0trabajos\u00a0de\u00a0base\u00a0emp\u00edrica\u00a0acerca\u00a0de\u00a0cu\u00e1l es\u00a0el\u00a0nivel\u00a0de\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0(medido\u00a0como\u00a0%\u00a0del\u00a0PBI)\u00a0deseable\u00a0para\u00a0alcanzar\u00a0un\u00a0alto\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0econ\u00f3mico, \u00a0puesto\u00a0que\u00a0depende\u00a0en\u00a0buena\u00a0medida\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0caracter\u00edsticas\u00a0propias\u00a0de\u00a0cada\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0y\u00a0de\u00a0la composici\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0misma.\u00a0 En\u00a0Argentina\u00a0la\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0es\u00a0una\u00a0variable\u00a0sumamente\u00a0vol\u00e1til\u00a0puesto\u00a0que\u00a0depende\u00a0en\u00a0gran\u00a0medida\u00a0de los\u00a0efectos\u00a0del\u00a0ciclo\u00a0econ\u00f3mico,\u00a0y\u00a0adem\u00e1s\u00a0presenta\u00a0un\u00a0fuerte\u00a0componente\u00a0proc\u00edclico,\u00a0es\u00a0decir\u00a0que aumenta\u00a0a\u00a0medida\u00a0que\u00a0crece\u00a0el\u00a0producto,\u00a0y\u00a0disminuye\u00a0cuando\u00a0este\u00a0decrece.\u00a0Adem\u00e1s\u00a0se\u00a0ve\u00a0sumamente\u00a0afectada\u00a0por\u00a0las\u00a0tasas\u00a0de\u00a0inter\u00e9s\u00a0que\u00a0operan\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0conjunto\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda,\u00a0es\u00a0decir\u00a0por\u00a0el\u00a0 comportamiento\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0dep\u00f3sitos\u00a0y\u00a0del\u00a0gobierno\u00a0en\u00a0cuanto\u00a0a\u00a0las\u00a0l\u00edneas\u00a0de\u00a0cr\u00e9dito\u00a0que\u00a0otorgue. \u00a0El\u00a0 Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.37\u00a0 refleja\u00a0 el\u00a0 comportamiento\u00a0de\u00a0 la\u00a0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2187,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1917"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1917"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1917\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2875,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1917\/revisions\/2875"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2187"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1917"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1917"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1917"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}