{"id":1915,"date":"2014-02-19T00:48:14","date_gmt":"2014-02-19T00:48:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/?p=1915"},"modified":"2014-09-03T18:11:42","modified_gmt":"2014-09-03T18:11:42","slug":"2011-cap-i-iv-industria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/?p=1915","title":{"rendered":"INDUSTRIA"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a01.4\u00a0INDUSTRIA<\/strong><\/h1>\n

La\u00a0industria\u00a0argentina\u00a0contin\u00faa\u00a0siendo\u00a0una\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0ramas\u00a0productivas\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0din\u00e1micas\u00a0e\u00a0impulsoras\u00a0de crecimiento\u00a0econ\u00f3mico.\u00a0En\u00a0los\u00a0\u00faltimos\u00a0nueve\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0experiment\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a0incremento\u00a0sostenido\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0(a\u00a0excepci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0ca\u00edda\u00a0registrada\u00a0en\u00a02009),\u00a0que\u00a0la\u00a0ubica\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0actualidad\u00a0como\u00a0la\u00a0principal actividad\u00a0productiva\u00a0de\u00a0bienes\u00a0en\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds\u00a0con\u00a0una\u00a0participaci\u00f3n\u00a0apenas\u00a0inferior\u00a0al\u00a054%.\u00a0Es\u00a0decir, que\u00a0 por\u00a0 cada\u00a0 peso\u00a0 producido\u00a0 en\u00a0 bienes\u00a0 m\u00e1s\u00a0 de\u00a0 la\u00a0 mitad\u00a0 corresponde\u00a0 al\u00a0 sector\u00a0 manufacturero19.<\/p>\n

Incluyendo\u00a0 al\u00a0 sector\u00a0 servicios,\u00a0 la\u00a0 participaci\u00f3n\u00a0 de\u00a0 la\u00a0 industria\u00a0 manufacturera\u00a0 sobre\u00a0 el\u00a0 total\u00a0 de\u00a0 las actividades\u00a0productivas\u00a0desciende\u00a0al\u00a016,25%\u00a0del\u00a0Producto\u00a0Bruto\u00a0Interno,\u00a0aunque\u00a0conserva\u00a0el\u00a0primer lugar\u00a0en\u00a0generaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0valor\u00a0con\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0a\u00a0las\u00a0dem\u00e1s\u00a0actividades\u00a0del\u00a0conjunto\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda. A\u00a0pesar\u00a0de\u00a0lo\u00a0anterior,\u00a0el\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0actividad\u00a0manufacturera\u00a0en\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds\u00a0se\u00a0encuentra afectada\u00a0por\u00a0un\u00a0conjunto\u00a0de\u00a0factores\u00a0macroecon\u00f3micos,\u00a0tales\u00a0como\u00a0la\u00a0demanda\u00a0dom\u00e9stica\u00a0y\u00a0extranjera\u00a0 (especialmente\u00a0 brasilera,\u00a0 asi\u00e1tica\u00a0 y\u00a0 en\u00a0 menor\u00a0 medida\u00a0 europea)\u00a0 de\u00a0 nuestros productos,\u00a0 los costos\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0insumos\u00a0para\u00a0la\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0(donde\u00a0el\u00a0salario\u00a0ocupa\u00a0un\u00a0lugar\u00a0preponderante),\u00a0las\u00a0variaciones\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0precios\u00a0relevantes\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0(tipo\u00a0de\u00a0cambio\u00a0real,\u00a0nivel\u00a0de\u00a0precios,\u00a0etc.),\u00a0entre otros.\u00a0Es\u00a0por\u00a0ello\u00a0que\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0establecimiento\u00a0de\u00a0una\u00a0pol\u00edtica\u00a0industrial\u00a0\u00f3ptima,\u00a0resulta\u00a0cr\u00edtica\u00a0la\u00a0consideraci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0mismos.<\/p>\n

1.4.1\u00a0Composici\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0argentina\u00a0por\u00a0rubros<\/strong>20<\/sup><\/p>\n

La\u00a0industria\u00a0en\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds\u00a0est\u00e1\u00a0fuertemente\u00a0concentrada\u00a0en\u00a0un\u00a0conjunto\u00a0de\u00a0actividades\u00a0productivas,<\/p>\n

\u00a0y\u00a0dicha\u00a0estructura\u00a0no\u00a0se\u00a0vio\u00a0expuesta\u00a0a\u00a0grandes\u00a0cambios\u00a0en\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0a\u00a0la\u00a0medici\u00f3n\u00a0del\u00a0\u00faltimo censo\u00a0nacional\u00a0econ\u00f3mico\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a02003\u00a0(las\u00a0estimaciones\u00a0alrededor\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0composici\u00f3n\u00a0productiva local\u00a0dejan\u00a0entrever\u00a0que\u00a0salvo\u00a0el\u00a0sector\u00a0automotriz,\u00a0el\u00a0resto\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0sectores\u00a0mantuvo\u00a0aproximadamente<\/p>\n

\u00a0su\u00a0participaci\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0periodo\u00a02004\u20102011).<\/p>\n

La\u00a0rama\u00a0alimenticia\u00a0es\u00a0la\u00a0que\u00a0mayor\u00a0valor\u00a0agrega\u00a0en\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds,\u00a0con\u00a0un\u00a0porcentaje\u00a0cercano\u00a0al\u00a025% del\u00a0total\u00a0industrial,\u00a0seguida\u00a0por\u00a0la\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0sustancias\u00a0y\u00a0productos\u00a0qu\u00edmicos\u00a0que\u00a0se\u00a0ubica\u00a0en torno\u00a0al\u00a015%.\u00a0Las\u00a0industrias\u00a0devenidas\u00a0de\u00a0actividades\u00a0extractivas\u00a0como\u00a0son\u00a0la\u00a0refinaci\u00f3n\u00a0del\u00a0petr\u00f3leo y\u00a0 el\u00a0 procesamiento\u00a0 de\u00a0 minerales\u00a0 met\u00e1licos\u00a0 con\u00a0 una\u00a0 participaci\u00f3n\u00a0 cercana\u00a0 al\u00a0 7%,\u00a0 se\u00a0 encuentran\u00a0 a continuaci\u00f3n,\u00a0 aunque\u00a0 ambas\u00a0 han\u00a0 sufrido\u00a0 un\u00a0 estancamiento\u00a0 relativo\u00a0 en\u00a0 los\u00a0 \u00faltimos\u00a0 diez\u00a0 a\u00f1os\u00a0 (en especial\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0caso\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0refinaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0petr\u00f3leo).<\/p>\n

Por\u00a0su\u00a0parte,\u00a0el\u00a0sector\u00a0automotriz\u00a0ha\u00a0cobrado\u00a0gran\u00a0preponderancia\u00a0y\u00a0aument\u00f3\u00a0su\u00a0participaci\u00f3n\u00a0relativa con\u00a0respecto\u00a0al\u00a0total\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0a\u00a0partir\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0mayor\u00a0cantidad\u00a0de\u00a0autos\u00a0producidos,\u00a0que\u00a0se increment\u00f3\u00a0 aproximadamente\u00a0 un\u00a0 400%\u00a0 en\u00a0 los\u00a0 \u00faltimos\u00a0 ocho\u00a0 a\u00f1os.\u00a0 No\u00a0 obstante,\u00a0 dicha\u00a0 expansi\u00f3n puede\u00a0dividirse\u00a0en\u00a0dos\u00a0etapas,\u00a0una\u00a0etapa\u00a0de\u00a0recuperaci\u00f3n\u00a0desde\u00a0el\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a02003\u00a0al\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a02006\u00a0retornando<\/p>\n

\n

\u00a019<\/sup>\u00a0La\u00a0industria\u00a0manufacturera\u00a0comprende\u00a0la\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0manufacturas\u00a0tanto\u00a0de\u00a0origen\u00a0agropecuario\u00a0como\u00a0de\u00a0origen\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

industrial.<\/p>\n

20<\/sup>\u00a0Se\u00a0utiliza\u00a0la\u00a0clasificaci\u00f3n\u00a0CIIU\u00a0a\u00a0dos\u00a0d\u00edgitos\u00a0para\u00a0la\u00a0agrupaci\u00f3n\u00a0por\u00a0rubros\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0actividades\u00a0productivas\u00a0industriales.<\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0 a\u00a0un\u00a0nivel\u00a0cercano\u00a0al\u00a0producido\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a01998\u00a0y\u00a0una\u00a0etapa\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0genuino\u00a0desde\u00a02007\u00a0hasta\u00a02011.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0Por\u00a0ello\u00a0a\u00a0pesar\u00a0de\u00a0que\u00a0actualmente\u00a0no\u00a0hay\u00a0mediciones\u00a0acerca\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0posici\u00f3n\u00a0que\u00a0ocupa\u00a0la industria\u00a0automotriz\u00a0en\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0a\u00a0agregaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0valor\u00a0respecta,\u00a0es\u00a0pr\u00e1cticamente\u00a0un\u00a0hecho\u00a0que<\/p>\n

super\u00f3\u00a0a\u00a0la\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0caucho\u00a0y\u00a0pl\u00e1stico\u00a0y\u00a0de\u00a0fabricaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0productos\u00a0de\u00a0metal,\u00a0que\u00a0ostentaban pr\u00e1cticamente\u00a0la\u00a0misma\u00a0participaci\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a02003\u00a0(algo\u00a0inferior\u00a0al\u00a05%).<\/p>\n

Si\u00a0bien\u00a0las\u00a0siete\u00a0industrias\u00a0antes\u00a0nombradas\u00a0representan\u00a0el\u00a070%\u00a0del\u00a0valor\u00a0agregado\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0industria argentina,\u00a0 tambi\u00e9n\u00a0 resultan\u00a0 significativas\u00a0 en\u00a0 la\u00a0 matriz\u00a0 productiva\u00a0 de\u00a0 manufacturas\u00a0 industriales\u00a0 la fabricaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0papel\u00a0y\u00a0su\u00a0procesamiento,\u00a0y\u00a0la\u00a0de\u00a0maquinaria\u00a0y\u00a0equipos\u00a0con\u00a0una\u00a0participaci\u00f3n\u00a0de<\/p>\n

\u00a0alrededor\u00a0del\u00a04%\u00a0cada\u00a0una.\u00a0Los\u00a0trece\u00a0rubros\u00a0restantes\u00a0agregan\u00a0aproximadamente\u00a0el\u00a022%\u00a0del\u00a0valor<\/p>\n

industrial,\u00a0por\u00a0lo\u00a0cual\u00a0su\u00a0actividad\u00a0se\u00a0ve\u00a0circunscripta\u00a0a\u00a0los\u00a0complejos\u00a0productivos\u00a0regionales\u00a0que\u00a0integran y\u00a0su\u00a0peso\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0total\u00a0nacional\u00a0es\u00a0marginal.<\/p>\n

1.4.1.1\u00a0Evoluci\u00f3n\u00a0sectorial\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

El\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a02011\u00a0arranc\u00f3\u00a0con\u00a0un\u00a0desempe\u00f1o\u00a0sumamente\u00a0prometedor\u00a0en\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0a\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0industrial respecta,\u00a0 puesto\u00a0 que\u00a0 durante\u00a0 los\u00a0 tres\u00a0 primeros\u00a0 meses\u00a0 del\u00a0 a\u00f1o\u00a0 las\u00a0 tasas\u00a0 de\u00a0 crecimiento\u00a0 reflejadas tanto\u00a0por\u00a0los\u00a0indicadores\u00a0p\u00fablico\u00a0y\u00a0privado21\u00a0oscilaron\u00a0en\u00a0torno\u00a0al\u00a09%.\u00a0Con\u00a0el\u00a0antecedente\u00a0de\u00a0la<\/p>\n

recuperaci\u00f3n\u00a0evidenciada\u00a0durante\u00a02010,\u00a0las\u00a0expectativas\u00a0en\u00a0torno\u00a0al\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0del\u00a0sector\u00a0eran<\/p>\n

elevadas\u00a0en\u00a0aquel\u00a0entonces.\u00a0Sin\u00a0embargo,\u00a0a\u00a0lo\u00a0largo\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0se\u00a0sucedieron\u00a0una\u00a0serie\u00a0de\u00a0hechos<\/p>\n

\u00a0econ\u00f3micos\u00a0que\u00a0alteraron\u00a0las\u00a0previsiones\u00a0e\u00a0impidieron\u00a0un\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0similar\u00a0al\u00a0de\u00a02010 (superior\u00a0al\u00a010%\u00a0interanual).<\/p>\n

\u00a0\"\"<\/p>\n

En\u00a0el\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.29\u00a0se\u00a0evidencia\u00a0la\u00a0variaci\u00f3n\u00a0interanual\u00a0del\u00a0nivel\u00a0de\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0industrial\u00a0en\u00a0cada\u00a0uno de\u00a0los\u00a0meses\u00a0del\u00a02011\u00a0con\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0al\u00a0mismo\u00a0mes\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0anterior.\u00a0Ambos\u00a0indicadores\u00a0exhiben\u00a0una tendencia\u00a0descendente\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0tasa\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0aunque\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0caso\u00a0del\u00a0IPI\u00a0es\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0notoria\u00a0la\u00a0ca\u00edda, en\u00a0especial\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0per\u00edodo\u00a0comprendido\u00a0entre\u00a0los\u00a0meses\u00a0de\u00a0octubre\u00a0y\u00a0diciembre\u00a0(ambos\u00a0indicadores reflejan\u00a0una\u00a0ca\u00edda\u00a0similar\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0per\u00edodo\u00a0mayo\u2010agosto).\u00a0 Esto\u00a0refleja\u00a0que\u00a0el\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0a\u00a0comienzos\u00a0de\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0tuvo\u00a0un\u00a0alto\u00a0componente\u00a0residual de\u00a0los\u00a0niveles\u00a0de\u00a0recursos\u00a0existentes\u00a0y\u00a0las\u00a0expectativas\u00a0de\u00a0mercado\u00a0imperantes\u00a0en\u00a02010.\u00a0La\u00a0desacele-<\/p>\n

\n

21<\/sup>\u00a0Los\u00a0indicadores\u00a0mencionados\u00a0son\u00a0el\u00a0Estimador\u00a0Mensual\u00a0Industrial\u00a0(EMI)\u00a0que\u00a0publica\u00a0el\u00a0INDEC\u00a0y\u00a0el\u00a0\u00cdndice\u00a0de\u00a0Producci\u00f3n<\/p>\n

Industrial\u00a0(IPI)\u00a0cuya\u00a0elaboraci\u00f3n\u00a0corresponde\u00a0a\u00a0la\u00a0consultora\u00a0Orlando\u00a0Ferreres\u00a0y\u00a0Asociados.<\/p>\n

\n

raci\u00f3n\u00a0 econ\u00f3mica\u00a0 que\u00a0 experimentaron\u00a0 la\u00a0 mayor\u00eda\u00a0 de\u00a0 los\u00a0 pa\u00edses\u00a0 emergentes\u00a0 (Brasil\u00a0 en\u00a0 particular como\u00a0primer\u00a0socio\u00a0comercial\u00a0de\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds),\u00a0como\u00a0consecuencia\u00a0del\u00a0impacto\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0crisis\u00a0de\u00a0deuda\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

internacional\u00a0que\u00a0afecta\u00a0a\u00a0gran\u00a0parte\u00a0de\u00a0Europa,\u00a0termin\u00f3\u00a0repercutiendo\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0niveles\u00a0de\u00a0comercio interindustrial\u00a0en\u00a0Latinoam\u00e9rica.\u00a0Lo\u00a0anterior\u00a0explica\u00a0la\u00a0desaceleraci\u00f3n\u00a0ocurrida\u00a0durante\u00a02011,<\/p>\n

aunque\u00a0la\u00a0tasa\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0acumulada\u00a0en\u00a0todo\u00a0el\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0del\u00a04,8%\u00a0seg\u00fan\u00a0el\u00a0IPI\u00a0y\u00a0de\u00a06,5%\u00a0por\u00a0parte\u00a0del EMI\u00a0muestran\u00a0un\u00a0desempe\u00f1o\u00a0relativamente\u00a0satisfactorio\u00a0en\u00a0t\u00e9rminos\u00a0anuales.\u00a0\u00a0 Si\u00a0bien\u00a0el\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0industrial\u00a0argentino\u00a0depende\u00a0en\u00a0buena\u00a0medida\u00a0del\u00a0nivel\u00a0de\u00a0actividad\u00a0dom\u00e9stico<\/p>\n

\u00a0y\u00a0del\u00a0nivel\u00a0de\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0bruta\u00a0fija,\u00a0el\u00a0grado\u00a0de\u00a0integraci\u00f3n\u00a0comercial\u00a0en\u00a0algunas\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0ramas\u00a0m\u00e1s din\u00e1micas\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0\u00faltimos\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0(por\u00a0caso\u00a0la\u00a0automotriz),\u00a0afecta\u00a0los\u00a0eslabonamientos productivos\u00a0en\u00a0toda\u00a0la\u00a0cadena\u00a0e\u00a0impacta\u00a0sobre\u00a0el\u00a0desempe\u00f1o\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0en\u00a0su\u00a0conjunto.\u00a0En\u00a0caso de\u00a0presenciar\u00a0un\u00a0proceso\u00a0de\u00a0apreciaci\u00f3n\u00a0cambiaria\u00a0o\u00a0de\u00a0aumento\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0costos\u00a0de\u00a0producci\u00f3n,\u00a0el riesgo\u00a0de\u00a0estancamiento\u00a0e\u00a0incluso\u00a0de\u00a0ca\u00edda\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0niveles\u00a0de\u00a0actividad\u00a0industrial\u00a0aumentar\u00eda\u00a0notablemente.<\/p>\n

Para\u00a0 evitar\u00a0 que\u00a0 dicho\u00a0proceso\u00a0 se\u00a0 torne\u00a0 irreversible\u00a0 la\u00a0 soluci\u00f3n\u00a0 \u00f3ptima\u00a0 consistir\u00eda\u00a0 en\u00a0 conjugar\u00a0una serie\u00a0de\u00a0medidas\u00a0de\u00a0mediano\u00a0plazo\u00a0y\u00a0de\u00a0corte\u00a0transversal\u00a0que\u00a0afecten\u00a0a\u00a0todas\u00a0las\u00a0ramas\u00a0productivas, como\u00a0podr\u00edan\u00a0ser\u00a0el\u00a0fomento\u00a0a\u00a0la\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0equipos\u00a0f\u00edsicos\u00a0de\u00a0alta\u00a0tecnolog\u00eda\u00a0a\u00a0trav\u00e9s\u00a0de\u00a0l\u00edneas\u00a0de<\/p>\n

cr\u00e9dito\u00a0espec\u00edficas,\u00a0el\u00a0seguimiento\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0flujos\u00a0de\u00a0comercio\u00a0para\u00a0evitar\u00a0pr\u00e1cticas\u00a0desleales\u00a0(en\u00a0especial<\/p>\n

\u00a0por\u00a0las\u00a0m\u00faltiples\u00a0denuncias\u00a0de\u00a0dumping\u00a0que\u00a0pesan\u00a0sobre\u00a0China),\u00a0un\u00a0manejo\u00a0macroprudencial\u00a0de la\u00a0pol\u00edtica\u00a0monetaria\u00a0para\u00a0contener\u00a0la\u00a0veloz\u00a0suba\u00a0de\u00a0precios\u00a0y\u00a0un\u00a0ajuste\u00a0del\u00a0tipo\u00a0de\u00a0cambio\u00a0real\u00a0a\u00a0los fines\u00a0de\u00a0evitar\u00a0un\u00a0indeseable\u00a0atraso\u00a0cambiario,\u00a0entre\u00a0otras.<\/p>\n

1.4.1.2\u00a0Evoluci\u00f3n\u00a0por\u00a0rubros\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

En\u00a0el\u00a0apartado\u00a0anterior\u00a0qued\u00f3\u00a0de\u00a0manifiesto\u00a0que\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0creci\u00f3\u00a0a\u00a0lo\u00a0largo\u00a0de\u00a02011\u00a0en\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0al a\u00f1o\u00a0previo,\u00a0sin\u00a0embargo\u00a0es\u00a0importante\u00a0resaltar\u00a0que\u00a0no\u00a0todos\u00a0los\u00a0rubros\u00a0que\u00a0la\u00a0componen\u00a0tuvieron un\u00a0 comportamiento\u00a0 homog\u00e9neo\u00a0 sino\u00a0 m\u00e1s\u00a0 bien\u00a0 presentaron\u00a0 una\u00a0 marcada\u00a0 heterogeneidad\u00a0 en\u00a0 su desempe\u00f1o\u00a0 productivo.\u00a0 De\u00a0 los\u00a0 doce\u00a0 rubros\u00a0 en\u00a0 los\u00a0 que\u00a0 se\u00a0 divide\u00a0 el\u00a0 Estimador\u00a0 Mensual\u00a0 Industrial (EMI),\u00a0tan\u00a0s\u00f3lo\u00a0tres\u00a0estuvieron\u00a0por\u00a0encima\u00a0del\u00a0nivel\u00a0general\u00a0en\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0a\u00a0tasa\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0interanual\u00a0se\u00a0refiere,\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0da<\/p>\n

\u00a0cuenta\u00a0de\u00a0que\u00a0el\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0evidenciado\u00a0por\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0el\u00a0pasado\u00a0a\u00f1o<\/p>\n

estuvo\u00a0concentrado\u00a0en\u00a0un\u00a0conjunto\u00a0reducido\u00a0de\u00a0ramas\u00a0productivas\u00a0(ver\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.30).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Los\u00a0sectores\u00a0metalmec\u00e1nico,\u00a0automotriz\u00a0y\u00a0mineral\u00a0no\u00a0metal\u00edfero\u00a0fueron\u00a0los\u00a0\u00fanicos\u00a0tres\u00a0cuyo\u00a0desempe\u00f1o<\/p>\n

\u00a0durante\u00a02011\u00a0fue\u00a0superior\u00a0al\u00a0del\u00a0promedio\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0como\u00a0se\u00a0observa\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.30. El\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0de\u00a0cada\u00a0uno\u00a0de\u00a0ellos\u00a0fue\u00a0de\u00a013,6%,\u00a013,1%\u00a0y\u00a09,1%\u00a0respectivamente,\u00a0es\u00a0decir\u00a0entre\u00a02,5\u00a0y 7\u00a0puntos\u00a0porcentuales\u00a0por\u00a0encima\u00a0del\u00a0nivel\u00a0general.\u00a0El\u00a0hecho\u00a0de\u00a0que\u00a0gran\u00a0parte\u00a0del\u00a0incremento\u00a0productivo<\/p>\n

\u00a0se\u00a0explique\u00a0a\u00a0trav\u00e9s\u00a0de\u00a0lo\u00a0acontecido\u00a0en\u00a0s\u00f3lo\u00a0tres\u00a0ramas\u00a0exhibe,\u00a0por\u00a0un\u00a0lado\u00a0el\u00a0alto\u00a0grado\u00a0de dependencia\u00a0a\u00a0esos\u00a0sectores\u00a0(lo\u00a0que\u00a0atenta\u00a0contra\u00a0la\u00a0sustentabilidad\u00a0de\u00a0mediano\u00a0y\u00a0largo\u00a0plazo),\u00a0y por\u00a0 otro\u00a0 lado\u00a0que\u00a0 existen\u00a0 industrias\u00a0 que\u00a0 resultan\u00a0 ser\u00a0 m\u00e1s\u00a0 din\u00e1micas\u00a0que\u00a0 el\u00a0 resto\u00a0(pueden\u00a0 resistir mejor\u00a0las\u00a0fluctuaciones\u00a0macroecon\u00f3micas).<\/p>\n

Siguiendo\u00a0con\u00a0el\u00a0resto\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0rubros\u00a0que\u00a0componen\u00a0el\u00a0EMI,\u00a0dos\u00a0que\u00a0resultan\u00a0de\u00a0especial\u00a0inter\u00e9s\u00a0son la\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0metales\u00a0b\u00e1sicos\u00a0y\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0alimenticia.\u00a0En\u00a0el\u00a0caso\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0primera,\u00a0porque\u00a0es\u00a0el<\/p>\n

eslab\u00f3n\u00a0primario\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0cadena\u00a0de\u00a0un\u00a0conjunto\u00a0de\u00a0actividades\u00a0manufactureras\u00a0de\u00a0alto\u00a0valor\u00a0agregado (como\u00a0ser\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0automotriz)\u00a0y\u00a0a\u00a0su\u00a0vez\u00a0provee\u00a0de\u00a0insumos\u00a0b\u00e1sicos\u00a0a\u00a0la\u00a0construcci\u00f3n.\u00a0Con\u00a0respecto<\/p>\n

a\u00a0la\u00a0segunda,\u00a0porque\u00a0representa\u00a0aproximadamente\u00a0la\u00a0cuarta\u00a0parte\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0actividad\u00a0industrial\u00a0de nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds\u00a0en\u00a0funci\u00f3n\u00a0del\u00a0entramado\u00a0productivo\u00a0que\u00a0impera\u00a0a\u00a0partir\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0dotaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0recursos naturales\u00a0(en\u00a0particular\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds\u00a0posee\u00a0una\u00a0abundante\u00a0cantidad\u00a0de\u00a0factor\u00a0tierra22<\/sup>).\u00a0 Las\u00a0industrias\u00a0met\u00e1licas\u00a0b\u00e1sicas\u00a0mostraron\u00a0un\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0en\u00a02011\u00a0con\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0a\u00a02010\u00a0del\u00a05,9%,\u00a0en tanto\u00a0que\u00a0para\u00a0el\u00a0caso\u00a0de\u00a0alimentos\u00a0y\u00a0bebidas\u00a0el\u00a0incremento\u00a0fue\u00a0del\u00a0orden\u00a0del\u00a04,8%.\u00a0Si\u00a0bien\u00a0el\u00a0hecho de\u00a0que\u00a0ambas\u00a0hayan\u00a0crecido\u00a0el\u00a0pasado\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0es\u00a0un\u00a0dato\u00a0positivo,\u00a0la\u00a0desaceleraci\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0producci\u00f3n metal\u00edfera\u00a0b\u00e1sica\u00a0(hab\u00eda\u00a0crecido\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0del\u00a020%\u00a0en\u00a02010\u00a0con\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0a\u00a02009)\u00a0alerta\u00a0al\u00a0resto\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0actividades\u00a0 productivas\u00a0 que\u00a0 utilizan\u00a0 como\u00a0 insumo\u00a0 tanto\u00a0 el\u00a0 acero\u00a0 crudo\u00a0 como\u00a0 el\u00a0 aluminio\u00a0 primario. Adem\u00e1s\u00a0el\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0rubro\u00a0alimentos\u00a0y\u00a0bebidas\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0\u00faltimos\u00a0cinco\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0estuvo\u00a0siempre\u00a0por debajo\u00a0del\u00a05%\u00a0(a\u00a0excepci\u00f3n\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a02009\u00a0que\u00a0creci\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a08%),\u00a0dando\u00a0se\u00f1ales\u00a0de\u00a0que\u00a0se\u00a0podr\u00eda\u00a0estar\u00a0en presencia\u00a0de\u00a0un\u00a0efecto\u00a0cuello\u00a0de\u00a0botella\u00a0en\u00a0dicha\u00a0actividad. Por\u00a0\u00faltimo,\u00a0un\u00a0rubro\u00a0significativo\u00a0en\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0a\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0industrial\u00a0respecta\u00a0es\u00a0la\u00a0refinaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0petr\u00f3leo.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Durante\u00a02011\u00a0present\u00f3\u00a0una\u00a0ca\u00edda\u00a0en\u00a0t\u00e9rminos\u00a0interanuales\u00a0del\u00a04%,\u00a0siguiendo\u00a0la\u00a0tendencia\u00a0de\u00a0los tres\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0previos\u00a0(2010,\u00a02009\u00a0y\u00a02008),\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0cuales\u00a0tambi\u00e9n\u00a0present\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a0decrecimiento\u00a0en\u00a0relaci\u00f3n al\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0inmediato\u00a0anterior.\u00a0Tal\u00a0es\u00a0la\u00a0magnitud\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0ca\u00edda\u00a0que\u00a0durante\u00a02011\u00a0la\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0petr\u00f3leo crudo\u00a0se\u00a0ubic\u00f3\u00a0en\u00a0torno\u00a0a\u00a0los\u00a033\u00a0millones\u00a0de\u00a0metros\u00a0c\u00fabicos,\u00a0el\u00a0nivel\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0bajo\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0\u00faltimos\u00a0veinte a\u00f1o\u00a0en\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds,\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0impacta\u00a0directamente\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0etapa\u00a0de\u00a0procesamiento.<\/p>\n

Ello\u00a0se\u00a0debe\u00a0principalmente\u00a0a\u00a0una\u00a0deficiencia\u00a0estructural\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0sector\u00a0a\u00a0partir\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0escaza\u00a0cantidad de\u00a0exploraciones,\u00a0la\u00a0poca\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0equipos\u00a0extractivos\u00a0de\u00a0\u00faltima\u00a0generaci\u00f3n\u00a0y\u00a0un\u00a0posible\u00a0agotamiento\u00a0del\u00a0recurso\u00a0natural\u00a0en\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds\u00a0por\u00a0la\u00a0v\u00eda\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0extracci\u00f3n\u00a0convencional\u00a0(es\u00a0decir\u00a0excluyendo\u00a0las\u00a0reservas\u00a0de\u00a0shale\u00a0gas\u00a0y\u00a0tight\u00a0gas23<\/sup>).\u00a0Es\u00a0por\u00a0esto\u00a0que\u00a0resulta\u00a0sumamente\u00a0improbable\u00a0la\u00a0reversi\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0tendencia\u00a0evidenciada\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0\u00faltimos\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0corto\u00a0plazo.\u00a0A\u00a0largo\u00a0plazo,\u00a0la\u00a0misma podr\u00eda\u00a0revertirse\u00a0siempre\u00a0y\u00a0cuando\u00a0se\u00a0produzca\u00a0una\u00a0fuerte\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0exploraci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0yacimientos no\u00a0tradicionales\u00a0que\u00a0permitan\u00a0obtener\u00a0la\u00a0materia\u00a0prima\u00a0y\u00a0generar\u00a0una\u00a0estructura\u00a0productiva\u00a0capaz de\u00a0darle\u00a0tratamiento\u00a0a\u00a0ella.<\/p>\n

1.4.1.3\u00a0El\u00a0uso\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0capacidad\u00a0instalada\u00a0y\u00a0la\u00a0restricci\u00f3n\u00a0potencial\u00a0al\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

El\u00a0 crecimiento\u00a0 industrial\u00a0 a\u00a0 lo\u00a0 largo\u00a0 de\u00a0 los\u00a0 \u00faltimos\u00a0 nueve\u00a0 a\u00f1os\u00a0 es\u00a0 innegable,\u00a0 as\u00ed\u00a0 lo\u00a0 demuestran\u00a0 los indicadores\u00a0 de\u00a0 producci\u00f3n\u00a0 industrial\u00a0 tanto\u00a0 p\u00fablico\u00a0 como\u00a0 privados\u00a0 (el\u00a0 incremento\u00a0 acumulado\u00a0 en dicho\u00a0per\u00edodo\u00a0se\u00a0estima\u00a0entre\u00a060%\u00a0y\u00a075%).\u00a0Sin\u00a0embargo,\u00a0las\u00a0condiciones\u00a0iniciales\u00a0de\u00a0este\u00a0proceso\u00a0de sostenido\u00a0aumento\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0origen\u00a0industrial\u00a0distan\u00a0mucho\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0actuales.<\/p>\n

\n

\u00a022<\/sup>\u00a0En\u00a0general\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0literatura\u00a0econ\u00f3mica\u00a0se\u00a0hace\u00a0referencia\u00a0a\u00a03\u00a0factores\u00a0productivos\u00a0b\u00e1sicos:\u00a0tierra,\u00a0capital\u00a0y\u00a0trabajo.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

23\u00a0<\/sup>Tanto\u00a0el\u00a0\u201cshale\u00a0gas\u201d\u00a0como\u00a0el\u00a0\u201ctight\u00a0gas\u201d\u00a0forman\u00a0parte\u00a0de\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0se\u00a0conoce\u00a0como\u00a0\u201cgas\u00a0no\u00a0convencional\u201d\u00a0por\u00a0encontrarse\u00a0en\u00a0<\/span>estructuras\u00a0geol\u00f3gicas\u00a0especiales\u00a0(ya\u00a0sea\u00a0arena\u00a0o\u00a0roca),\u00a0que\u00a0impiden\u00a0su\u00a0extracci\u00f3n\u00a0a\u00a0trav\u00e9s\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0t\u00e9cnicas\u00a0tradicionales.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0A nivel\u00a0mundial\u00a0despiertan\u00a0gran\u00a0inter\u00e9s\u00a0puesto\u00a0que se\u00a0consideran\u00a0la\u00a0alternativa\u00a0futura\u00a0al\u00a0agotamiento\u00a0del<\/p>\n

\u00a0recurso\u00a0tradicional.<\/p>\n

\n

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1.4.2\u00a0Sector\u00a0Automotriz<\/strong>
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\nEn\u00a0 este\u00a0 marco,\u00a0 es\u00a0 condici\u00f3n\u00a0 necesaria\u00a0 para\u00a0 potenciar\u00a0 la\u00a0 producci\u00f3n\u00a0 de\u00a0 equipos\u00a0 de\u00a0 transporte\u00a0 el\u00a0contar\u00a0con\u00a0 un\u00a0 grado\u00a0 de\u00a0 competitividad\u00a0 aceptable\u00a0 tanto\u00a0 en\u00a0 lo\u00a0 que\u00a0 refiere\u00a0 a\u00a0 procesos\u00a0 productivos,\u00a0costo\u00a0 de\u00a0 los\u00a0 insumos,\u00a0 pol\u00edticas\u00a0 arancelarias\u00a0 y\u00a0 cambiarias\u00a0 y\u00a0 acuerdos\u00a0 de\u00a0 integraci\u00f3n\u00a0 comercial.\u00a0 En\u00a0Argentina\u00a0todas\u00a0estas\u00a0cuestiones\u00a0han\u00a0sufrido\u00a0cambios\u00a0radicales\u00a0en\u00a0breves\u00a0per\u00edodos\u00a0de\u00a0tiempo,\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0alter\u00f3\u00a0la\u00a0configuraci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0estructura\u00a0productiva\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0automotriz.<\/p>\n

\n

\u00a024<\/sup>\u00a0Este\u00a0tema\u00a0fue\u00a0abordado\u00a0con\u00a0mayor\u00a0grado\u00a0de\u00a0profundidad\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0punto\u00a01.4.1.2\u00a0del\u00a0presente\u00a0cap\u00edtulo.<\/p>\n

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\n

1.4.2.1\u00a0Evoluci\u00f3n\u00a0hist\u00f3rica\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0producci\u00f3n<\/strong>
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\n

1.4.2.2\u00a0Patentamientos:\u00a0Un\u00a0an\u00e1lisis\u00a0comparativo\u00a0con\u00a0el\u00a0resto\u00a0del\u00a0mundo\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

El\u00a02011\u00a0fue\u00a0un\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0record\u00a0en\u00a0Argentina\u00a0en\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0a\u00a0registro\u00a0de\u00a0autos\u00a00\u00a0km.\u00a0concierne,\u00a0registrando\u00a0el mayor\u00a0valor\u00a0hist\u00f3rico\u00a0desde\u00a0que\u00a0se\u00a0tiene\u00a0registro.\u00a0Durante\u00a0dicho\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0se\u00a0patentaron\u00a0en\u00a0todo\u00a0nuestro pa\u00eds\u00a0857.983\u00a0automotores,\u00a0un\u00a029,5%\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0del\u00a0total\u00a0observado\u00a0en\u00a02010\u00a0que\u00a0hab\u00eda\u00a0marcado\u00a0un\u00a0record tambi\u00e9n\u00a0(662.591\u00a0unidades\u00a0nuevas\u00a0patentadas),\u00a0exhibiendo\u00a0un\u00a0espectacular\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0parque\u00a0automotor. Pero\u00a0el\u00a0vigoroso\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0del\u00a0consumo\u00a0dom\u00e9stico\u00a0de\u00a0autom\u00f3viles\u00a0no\u00a0solamente\u00a0llama\u00a0la\u00a0atenci\u00f3n en\u00a0t\u00e9rminos\u00a0del\u00a0comportamiento\u00a0hist\u00f3rico\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0variable,\u00a0sino\u00a0tambi\u00e9n\u00a0con\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0a\u00a0otros\u00a0pa\u00edses del\u00a0mundo\u00a0donde\u00a0se\u00a0registra\u00a0un\u00a0alto\u00a0\u00edndice\u00a0de\u00a0patentamientos\u00a0por\u00a0habitante.\u00a0Por\u00a0caso,\u00a0el\u00a0\u00edndice\u00a0de registro\u00a0de\u00a0automotores\u00a0nuevos\u00a0por\u00a0cada\u00a0mil\u00a0habitantes\u00a0durante\u00a02011\u00a0en\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds\u00a0super\u00f3\u00a0ampliamente\u00a0<\/span>al\u00a0resto\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0pa\u00edses\u00a0latinoamericanos\u00a0e\u00a0incluso\u00a0a\u00a0gran\u00a0parte\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0pa\u00edses\u00a0desarrollados<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Como\u00a0se\u00a0observa\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.33\u00a0en\u00a02011\u00a0en\u00a0Argentina\u00a0se\u00a0patentaron\u00a021,4\u00a0autom\u00f3viles\u00a0cada\u00a01000 habitantes,\u00a0mientras\u00a0que\u00a0en\u00a0Brasil,\u00a0Chile\u00a0y\u00a0M\u00e9xico\u00a0dicho\u00a0\u00edndice\u00a0se\u00a0ubic\u00f3\u00a0en\u00a015,8,\u00a011,6\u00a0y\u00a04,3<\/p>\n

respectivamente\u00a0por\u00a0poner\u00a0el\u00a0caso\u00a0de\u00a0tres\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0grandes\u00a0pa\u00edses\u00a0de\u00a0Latinoam\u00e9rica.\u00a0M\u00e1s\u00a0sorprendente a\u00fan\u00a0es\u00a0el\u00a0hecho\u00a0de\u00a0que\u00a0pa\u00edses\u00a0como\u00a0Corea\u00a0y\u00a0Jap\u00f3n\u00a0tambi\u00e9n\u00a0exhiben\u00a0un\u00a0\u00edndice\u00a0inferior\u00a0al\u00a0registrado en\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds\u00a0con\u00a018,4\u00a0y\u00a017,7\u00a0respectivamente.<\/p>\n

Los\u00a0pa\u00edses\u00a0que\u00a0presentaron\u00a0un\u00a0mayor\u00a0\u00edndice\u00a0de\u00a0patentamientos\u00a0por\u00a0cada\u00a01000\u00a0habitantes\u00a0en\u00a02011 fueron\u00a0Canad\u00e1\u00a0y\u00a0Estados\u00a0Unidos\u00a0donde\u00a0el\u00a0\u00edndice\u00a0asumi\u00f3\u00a0valores\u00a0de\u00a027,8\u00a0y\u00a023,9\u00a0respectivamente.\u00a0No obstante,\u00a0el\u00a0hecho\u00a0de\u00a0que\u00a0Argentina\u00a0haya\u00a0superado\u00a0la\u00a0barrera\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a020\u00a0patentamientos\u00a0por\u00a0cada\u00a0mil<\/p>\n

habitantes\u00a0es\u00a0un\u00a0hecho\u00a0hist\u00f3rico\u00a0y\u00a0sumamente\u00a0impensado\u00a0hace\u00a0pocos\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0atr\u00e1s.<\/p>\n

El\u00a0gran\u00a0desaf\u00edo\u00a0en relaci\u00f3n\u00a0al\u00a0incremento\u00a0del\u00a0n\u00famero\u00a0de\u00a0autom\u00f3viles\u00a0en\u00a0circulaci\u00f3n,\u00a0es\u00a0si\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds\u00a0posee\u00a0la\u00a0infraestructura<\/p>\n

\u00a0necesaria\u00a0para\u00a0albergar\u00a0semejante\u00a0cantidad\u00a0de\u00a0autos\u00a0nuevos\u00a0en\u00a0circulaci\u00f3n\u00a0a\u00a0cada\u00a0a\u00f1o,\u00a0y\u00a0si la\u00a0cifra\u00a0registrada\u00a0en\u00a02011\u00a0es\u00a0capaz\u00a0de\u00a0sostenerse\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0tiempo.\u00a0Desde\u00a0el\u00a0lado\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0no cabe\u00a0ninguna\u00a0duda\u00a0pues\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0automotriz\u00a0a\u00fan\u00a0posee\u00a0un\u00a0importante\u00a0resto\u00a0de\u00a0capacidad\u00a0instalada\u00a0(por\u00a0encima\u00a0del\u00a025%),\u00a0y\u00a0adem\u00e1s\u00a0el\u00a0volumen\u00a0de\u00a0inversiones\u00a0productivas\u00a0en\u00a0esta\u00a0rama\u00a0contin\u00faan\u00a0proliferando.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

1.4.2.3\u00a0Exportaciones\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

En\u00a0el\u00a0apartado\u00a01.4.2.1\u00a0del\u00a0presente\u00a0cap\u00edtulo\u00a0se\u00a0describe\u00a0la\u00a0notable\u00a0performance\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0automotriz\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

argentina\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0\u00faltimos\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0(en\u00a0especial\u00a0durante\u00a02010\u00a0y\u00a02011).\u00a0Sin\u00a0lugar\u00a0a\u00a0duda\u00a0las\u00a0exportaciones<\/p>\n

del\u00a0sector\u00a0jugaron\u00a0un\u00a0papel\u00a0preponderante\u00a0que\u00a0permiti\u00f3\u00a0batir\u00a0records\u00a0a\u00a0lo\u00a0largo\u00a0del\u00a0bienio que\u00a0pas\u00f3,\u00a0y\u00a0merecen\u00a0especial\u00a0atenci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0cara\u00a0a\u00a0un\u00a0futuro\u00a0inmediato\u00a0caracterizado\u00a0por\u00a0una\u00a0gran incertidumbre\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0lado\u00a0real\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda,\u00a0con\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0como\u00a0eje\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0discusi\u00f3n.\u00a0En\u00a0ese\u00a0sentido,<\/p>\n

el\u00a0grado\u00a0de\u00a0protecci\u00f3n\u00a0para\u2010arancelaria\u00a0que\u00a0pesa\u00a0sobre\u00a0el\u00a0comercio\u00a0exterior\u00a0argentino\u00a0plantea diferentes\u00a0escenarios\u00a0futuros\u00a0que\u00a0pueden\u00a0o\u00a0no\u00a0impactar\u00a0sobre\u00a0el\u00a0volumen\u00a0de\u00a0exportaciones\u00a0de\u00a0autom\u00f3viles<\/p>\n

producidos\u00a0en\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n

Es\u00a0sabido\u00a0la\u00a0tirante\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0que\u00a0existe\u00a0en\u00a0materia\u00a0de\u00a0comercio\u00a0exterior\u00a0entre\u00a0los\u00a0pa\u00edses\u00a0miembros del\u00a0 MERCOSUR,\u00a0 en\u00a0 particular\u00a0 en\u00a0 los\u00a0 \u00faltimos\u00a0 meses\u00a0 se\u00a0 han\u00a0 suscitado\u00a0 una\u00a0 serie\u00a0 de\u00a0 inconvenientes entre\u00a0la\u00a0Argentina\u00a0y\u00a0Brasil,\u00a0sumado\u00a0al\u00a0descontento\u00a0persistente\u00a0de\u00a0Uruguay\u00a0por\u00a0la\u00a0pol\u00edtica\u00a0comercial<\/p>\n

\u00a0argentina.\u00a0 Cabe\u00a0 resaltar\u00a0 que\u00a0 ambos\u00a0 pa\u00edses\u00a0 son\u00a0 los\u00a0 dos\u00a0 primeros\u00a0 destinos\u00a0 de\u00a0 las\u00a0 exportaciones\u00a0 de autom\u00f3viles\u00a0fabricados\u00a0en\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds,\u00a0aunque\u00a0con\u00a0una\u00a0participaci\u00f3n\u00a0bien\u00a0diferenciada.\u00a0Mientras Brasil\u00a0ocupa\u00a0el\u00a0primer\u00a0lugar\u00a0con\u00a0el\u00a081,1%\u00a0del\u00a0total,\u00a0Uruguay\u00a0ostenta\u00a0el\u00a0segundo\u00a0lugar\u00a0con\u00a0algo\u00a0m\u00e1s del\u00a02,7%.\u00a0Si\u00a0sumamos\u00a0la\u00a0participaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0otros\u00a0pa\u00edses\u00a0latinoamericanos\u00a0como\u00a0destino\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0exportaciones\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

del\u00a0sector\u00a0alcanzamos\u00a0el\u00a090%\u00a0(M\u00e9xico\u00a02,6%,\u00a0Venezuela\u00a01,4%,\u00a0Colombia\u00a01,1%\u00a0y\u00a0Chile\u00a01%).\u00a0Es por\u00a0ello\u00a0que\u00a0la\u00a0evoluci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0exportaciones\u00a0y\u00a0en\u00a0definitiva\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0automotriz\u00a0de\u00a0nuestro pa\u00eds\u00a0 de\u00a0 cara\u00a0 al\u00a0 futuro\u00a0 est\u00e1\u00a0 sumamente\u00a0 ligada\u00a0 a\u00a0 como\u00a0 se\u00a0 resuelvan\u00a0 los\u00a0 conflictos\u00a0 potenciales\u00a0 con nuestros\u00a0principales\u00a0socios\u00a0comerciales.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a028<\/sup>\u00a0El\u00a0gr\u00e1fico\u00a0inicia\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a01996\u00a0porque\u00a0al\u00a0igual\u00a0que\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0caso\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0producci\u00f3n,\u00a0\u00a0ADEFA\u00a0comenz\u00f3\u00a0a\u00a0relevar\u00a0los\u00a0datos\u00a0de\u00a0exportaciones\u00a0automotrices\u00a0desde\u00a0entonces\u00a0y\u00a0no\u00a0existen\u00a0estimaciones\u00a0confiables\u00a0para\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0anteriores.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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El\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.34\u00a0muestra\u00a0la\u00a0evoluci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0exportaciones\u00a0automotrices\u00a0de\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds\u00a0para\u00a0el\u00a0per\u00edodo\u00a01996\u20102011 28.\u00a0En\u00a0el\u00a0mismo\u00a0se\u00a0observan\u00a0dos\u00a0etapas\u00a0bien\u00a0diferenciadas;\u00a0por\u00a0un\u00a0lado\u00a0desde\u00a0el\u00a0a\u00f1o 1996\u00a0hasta\u00a0el\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a02006\u00a0las\u00a0exportaciones\u00a0del\u00a0sector\u00a0fluctuaron\u00a0entre\u00a0las\u00a098\u00a0mil\u00a0y\u00a0las\u00a0237\u00a0mil\u00a0unida<\/span>des,\u00a0 mientras\u00a0 que\u00a0 desde\u00a0 el\u00a0 a\u00f1o\u00a0 2007\u00a0 en\u00a0 adelante\u00a0 dicha\u00a0 cifra\u00a0 ha\u00a0 sido\u00a0 ampliamente\u00a0 superada\u00a0 y\u00a0 la tendencia\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0es\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0estable\u00a0y\u00a0sostenida\u00a0registrando\u00a0valores\u00a0ampliamente\u00a0superiores.<\/p>\n

\u00a0En\u00a0 1996\u00a0 se\u00a0 exportaron\u00a0 109\u00a0 mil\u00a0 unidades,\u00a0 increment\u00e1ndose\u00a0 sucesivamente\u00a0 durante\u00a0 los\u00a0 dos\u00a0 a\u00f1os subsiguientes\u00a0(con\u00a0un\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0del\u00a0120%\u00a0acumulado\u00a0para\u00a0el\u00a0bienio)\u00a0alcanzando\u00a0la\u00a0cifra\u00a0de\u00a0237\u00a0mil rodados\u00a0 en\u00a0 el\u00a0 a\u00f1o\u00a0 1998\u00a0 (cifra\u00a0 in\u00e9dita\u00a0 que\u00a0 volver\u00eda\u00a0 a\u00a0 lograrse\u00a0 reci\u00e9n\u00a0 ocho\u00a0 a\u00f1os\u00a0 despu\u00e9s).\u00a0 Resulta llamativa\u00a0la\u00a0profunda\u00a0ca\u00edda\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0variable\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a01999\u00a0(del\u00a0orden\u00a0del\u00a060%\u00a0interanual),\u00a0donde\u00a0se registr\u00f3\u00a0el\u00a0m\u00ednimo\u00a0valor\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0serie\u00a0con\u00a0tan\u00a0s\u00f3lo\u00a098\u00a0mil\u00a0unidades\u00a0exportadas,\u00a0aunque\u00a0el\u00a0hecho\u00a0se explica\u00a0 por\u00a0 la\u00a0 fuerte\u00a0 volatilidad\u00a0 en\u00a0 las\u00a0 econom\u00edas\u00a0 de\u00a0 los\u00a0 pa\u00edses\u00a0 emergentes\u00a0 que\u00a0 sufrieron\u00a0 severas crisis\u00a0 en\u00a0 ese\u00a0 per\u00edodo\u00a0 (M\u00e9xico,\u00a0 Brasil\u00a0 y\u00a0 los\u00a0 tigres\u00a0 asi\u00e1ticos<\/span>29<\/sup>\u00a0 fueron\u00a0 los\u00a0 pa\u00edses\u00a0 m\u00e1s\u00a0 afectados\u00a0 en\u00a0 el lapso\u00a0comprendido\u00a0entre\u00a0los\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a01995\u00a0y\u00a01999).\u00a0Precisamente\u00a0la\u00a0inestabilidad\u00a0macroecon\u00f3mica\u00a0en algunos\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0principales\u00a0socios\u00a0comerciales\u00a0y\u00a0tambi\u00e9n\u00a0en\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds\u00a0fue\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0dot\u00f3\u00a0de\u00a0volatilidad\u00a0a\u00a0las<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0exportaciones\u00a0en\u00a0su\u00a0conjunto.<\/p>\n

El\u00a0inicio\u00a0del\u00a0nuevo\u00a0milenio\u00a0pareci\u00f3\u00a0traer\u00a0consigo\u00a0una\u00a0recuperaci\u00f3n\u00a0para\u00a0las\u00a0exportaciones\u00a0automotrices\u00a0argentinas,\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

pero\u00a0tras\u00a0la\u00a0leve\u00a0recuperaci\u00f3n\u00a0exhibida\u00a0en\u00a02000\u00a0y\u00a02001,\u00a0la\u00a0\u00faltima\u00a0gran\u00a0recesi\u00f3n\u00a0que atraves\u00f3\u00a0 nuestro\u00a0 pa\u00eds\u00a0 volvi\u00f3\u00a0 a\u00a0 desplomarlas\u00a0 en\u00a0 2002\u00a0y\u00a0 2003\u00a0 alcanzando\u00a0 en\u00a0 dicho\u00a0 a\u00f1o\u00a0 las\u00a0 108\u00a0 mil unidades,\u00a0pr\u00e1cticamente\u00a0el\u00a0mismo\u00a0valor\u00a0registrado\u00a0a\u00a0comienzos\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0serie.\u00a0Hasta\u00a0entonces,\u00a0el\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0de\u00a0las<\/p>\n

exportaciones\u00a0de\u00a0automotores\u00a0nunca\u00a0se\u00a0sostuvo\u00a0por\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0de\u00a0dos\u00a0a\u00f1os,\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0deja entrever\u00a0el\u00a0alto\u00a0grado\u00a0de\u00a0fragilidad\u00a0institucional,\u00a0econ\u00f3mica\u00a0y\u00a0sectorial\u00a0que\u00a0caracterizaba\u00a0al\u00a0pa\u00eds\u00a0por entonces.<\/p>\n

Afortunadamente\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0mundial\u00a0gener\u00f3\u00a0condiciones\u00a0favorables\u00a0para\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds\u00a0y\u00a0desde\u00a0el a\u00f1o\u00a02004\u00a0y\u00a0hasta\u00a0el\u00a02008\u00a0se\u00a0sostuvo\u00a0el\u00a0per\u00edodo\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0exportaciones\u00a0automotrices m\u00e1s\u00a0largo\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0\u00faltimos\u00a0quince\u00a0a\u00f1os.\u00a0Entre\u00a02004\u00a0y\u00a02006\u00a0la\u00a0tasa\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0interanual\u00a0promedio fue\u00a0 del\u00a0 30%,\u00a0 y\u00a0 el crecimiento\u00a0 acumulado\u00a0 para\u00a0 los\u00a0 tres\u00a0 a\u00f1os\u00a0 estuvo\u00a0 apenas\u00a0 por\u00a0 debajo\u00a0 del\u00a0 120%, permitiendo\u00a0volver\u00a0a\u00a0alcanzar\u00a0el\u00a0valor\u00a0m\u00e1ximo\u00a0registrado\u00a0en\u00a01998\u00a0de\u00a0237\u00a0unidades\u00a0exportadas\u00a0en 2006.\u00a0Pero\u00a0la\u00a0tendencia\u00a0persisti\u00f3\u00a0durante\u00a0los\u00a0dos\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0subsiguientes\u00a0(aunque\u00a0a\u00a0una\u00a0tasa\u00a0algo\u00a0menor que\u00a0los\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0previos:\u00a022,5%\u00a0promedio\u00a0interanual),\u00a0y\u00a0en\u00a02008\u00a0nuevamente\u00a0se\u00a0alcanz\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a0record\u00a0de autom\u00f3viles\u00a0exportados\u00a0de\u00a0fabricaci\u00f3n\u00a0nacional\u00a0de\u00a0351\u00a0mil\u00a0unidades. Con\u00a0la\u00a0crisis\u00a0financiera\u00a0internacional\u00a0impactando\u00a0de\u00a0lleno\u00a0en\u00a0las\u00a0econom\u00edas\u00a0desarrolladas\u00a0y\u00a0a\u00a0trav\u00e9s de\u00a0los\u00a0flujos\u00a0de\u00a0comercio\u00a0con\u00a0los\u00a0pa\u00edses\u00a0emergentes,\u00a0el\u00a0comercio\u00a0exterior\u00a0en\u00a0todo\u00a0el\u00a0mundo\u00a0perdi\u00f3 vigor\u00a0 y\u00a0 las\u00a0 exportaciones\u00a0 automotrices\u00a0 argentinas\u00a0 no\u00a0 fueron\u00a0 la\u00a0 excepci\u00f3n.\u00a0 Tras\u00a0 los\u00a0 cinco\u00a0 a\u00f1os\u00a0 de sostenido\u00a0 aumento,\u00a0 en\u00a0 2009\u00a0 se\u00a0 produjo\u00a0 una\u00a0 ca\u00edda\u00a0 que\u00a0 aunque\u00a0 no\u00a0 result\u00f3\u00a0 dram\u00e1tica\u00a0 (la\u00a0 variaci\u00f3n porcentual\u00a0interanual\u00a0fue\u00a0de\u00a0\u20108%),\u00a0desaceler\u00f3\u00a0el\u00a0ritmo\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0que\u00a0ven\u00eda\u00a0exhibiendo\u00a0el\u00a0comercio\u00a0de\u00a0autom\u00f3viles\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

con\u00a0el\u00a0exterior.<\/p>\n

\u00a0No\u00a0obstante,\u00a0la\u00a0recuperaci\u00f3n\u00a0fue\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0veloz\u00a0de\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0se\u00a0preve\u00eda\u00a0e\u00a0incluso\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0intensa\u00a0dado\u00a0que\u00a0en el\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a02010\u00a0la\u00a0serie\u00a0vuelve\u00a0a\u00a0mostrar\u00a0un\u00a0incremento\u00a0del\u00a039%\u00a0interanual.\u00a0En\u00a0dicho\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0se\u00a0exportaron casi\u00a0450\u00a0mil\u00a0automotores,\u00a0un\u00a028%\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0del\u00a0valor\u00a0m\u00e1ximo\u00a0registrado\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a02008\u00a0marcando\u00a0as\u00ed\u00a0un nuevo\u00a0record.\u00a0La\u00a0tendencia\u00a0creciente\u00a0se\u00a0sostuvo\u00a0durante\u00a02011\u00a0volviendo\u00a0a\u00a0registrar\u00a0un\u00a0importante incremento\u00a0interanual\u00a0del\u00a013%\u00a0y\u00a0superando\u00a0la\u00a0cifra\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0500\u00a0mil\u00a0automotores\u00a0exportados\u00a0(en\u00a0rigor se\u00a0exportaron\u00a0506.715\u00a0unidades\u00a0a\u00a0lo\u00a0largo\u00a0de\u00a0todo\u00a0el\u00a0a\u00f1o. Para\u00a02012\u00a0se\u00a0plantean\u00a0varios\u00a0escenarios\u00a0posibles\u00a0y\u00a0las\u00a0relaciones\u00a0comerciales\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0seno\u00a0del\u00a0MERCOSUR,\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

la\u00a0marcha\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0brasile\u00f1a\u00a0a\u00a0lo\u00a0largo\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o,\u00a0las\u00a0restricciones\u00a0energ\u00e9ticas\u00a0que\u00a0puedan pesar\u00a0 sobre\u00a0 la\u00a0 capacidad productiva\u00a0 de\u00a0 la\u00a0 industria\u00a0 automotriz,\u00a0 entre\u00a0 otras\u00a0 determinar\u00e1n\u00a0 cu\u00e1l\u00a0 de ellos\u00a0termine\u00a0concret\u00e1ndose.\u00a0Lo\u00a0cierto\u00a0es\u00a0que\u00a0si\u00a0las\u00a0pol\u00edticas\u00a0macroecon\u00f3micas\u00a0no\u00a0entorpecen\u00a0los flujos\u00a0 de\u00a0 comercio,\u00a0 las inversiones\u00a0 de\u00a0 car\u00e1cter\u00a0 productivo\u00a0 realizadas\u00a0 en\u00a0 el\u00a0 \u00faltimo\u00a0 tiempo\u00a0 dan\u00a0 sus frutos\u00a0y\u00a0no\u00a0existe\u00a0un\u00a0cuello\u00a0de\u00a0botella\u00a0en\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0al\u00a0uso\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0recursos,\u00a0seguramente\u00a0estaremos\u00a0en presencia\u00a0de\u00a0un\u00a0nuevo\u00a0record\u00a0en\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0a\u00a0exportaciones\u00a0del\u00a0sector\u00a0refiere.\u00a0De\u00a0lo\u00a0contrario\u00a0ser\u00e1\u00a0muy<\/p>\n

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\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

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\n

\u00a01.4.3\u00a0El\u00a0uso\u00a0de\u00a0factores\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Como\u00a0se\u00a0hizo\u00a0referencia\u00a0previamente30\u00a0los\u00a0bienes\u00a0de\u00a0capital\u00a0son\u00a0un\u00a0componente\u00a0central\u00a0delproceso\u00a0de\u00a0producci\u00f3n,\u00a0pero\u00a0tambi\u00e9n\u00a0ocupan\u00a0un\u00a0rol\u00a0preponderante\u00a0los\u00a0recursos\u00a0humanos\u00a0para\u00a0operarlos,\u00a0dado\u00a0que\u00a0ambos\u00a0son\u00a0\u00a0fuertemente\u00a0complementarios\u00a0bajo\u00a0las\u00a0t\u00e9cnicas\u00a0de\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0actuales.<\/p>\n

\u00a0La\u00a0industria\u00a0en\u00a0particular\u00a0nucle\u00f3\u00a0durante\u00a0el\u00a0segundo\u00a0trimestre\u00a0de\u00a02011\u00a0algo\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0de\u00a01.250.000\u00a0trabajadores\u00a0registrados,dando\u00a0cuenta\u00a0de\u00a0su\u00a0importancia\u00a0en\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0a\u00a0generaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0empleo\u00a0respecta\u00a0y\u00a0dela\u00a0necesidad\u00a0propia\u00a0del\u00a0sector\u00a0de\u00a0contar\u00a0con\u00a0recursos\u00a0humanos\u00a0en\u00a0sus\u00a0procesos\u00a0de\u00a0producci\u00f3n.\u00a0La sostenibilidad\u00a0del\u00a0actual\u00a0\u00a0proceso\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0industrial\u00a0y\u00a0la\u00a0generaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0mayor\u00a0valor\u00a0agregadorequiere\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0mejora\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0equipos\u00a0f\u00edsicos\u00a0que\u00a0se\u00a0incorporan\u00a0a\u00a0los\u00a0procesos\u00a0productivos\u00a0(a\u00a0trav\u00e9s\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0inversi\u00f3n\u00a0p\u00fablica\u00a0y\u00a0privada),\u00a0y\u00a0la\u00a0\u00a0potenciaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0recursos\u00a0humanos\u00a0a\u00a0trav\u00e9s\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0educaci\u00f3n\u00a0y la\u00a0formaci\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0ciencias\u00a0b\u00e1sicas\u00a0y\u00a0aplicadas.<\/p>\n

\u00a01.4.3.1\u00a0Obreros\u00a0ocupados\u00a0y\u00a0horas\u00a0trabajadas\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

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La\u00a0variaci\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0cada\u00a0trimestre\u00a0de\u00a0ambos\u00a0\u00edndices\u00a0se\u00a0expone\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.35,\u00a0el\u00a0cual\u00a0muestra\u00a0que\u00a0tanto\u00a0el\u00a0IOO\u00a0como\u00a0el\u00a0IHT\u00a0tuvieron\u00a0un\u00a0leve\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0en\u00a0cada\u00a0uno\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0trimestres\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a02011\u00a0con\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0a\u00a0igual\u00a0trimestre\u00a0de\u00a02010\u00a0(excepto\u00a0el\u00a0IHT\u00a0durante\u00a0el\u00a0I\u20102011).\u00a0Sin\u00a0embargo,\u00a0y\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0all\u00e1\u00a0del\u00a0hecho\u00a0positivo\u00a0que\u00a0resulta\u00a0la\u00a0mayor\u00a0contrataci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0mano\u00a0de\u00a0obra\u00a0por\u00a0parte\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0empresas\u00a0del\u00a0sector\u00a0y\u00a0del\u00a0mayor\u00a0n\u00famero\u00a0de\u00a0horas\u00a0trabajadas,\u00a0el\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0interanual\u00a0promedio\u00a0en\u00a02011\u00a0estuvo\u00a0por\u00a0debajo\u00a0el\u00a0nivel\u00a0evidenciado\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0previos\u00a0a\u00a0la\u00a0crisis\u00a0financiera\u00a0internacional\u00a0(2007\u00a0y\u00a02008).
\nLo\u00a0 anterior\u00a0 deja\u00a0 entrever\u00a0 que\u00a0 si\u00a0 bien\u00a0 el\u00a0 crecimiento\u00a0 industrial\u00a0 en\u00a0 2011\u00a0 motoriz\u00f3\u00a0 la\u00a0 contrataci\u00f3n\u00a0 de\u00a0empleo,\u00a0hay\u00a0una\u00a0evidente\u00a0desaceleraci\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0cantidad\u00a0de\u00a0obreros\u00a0ocupados\u00a0y\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0cantidad\u00a0de\u00a0horas\u00a0trabajadas\u00a0(es\u00a0decir,\u00a0ambas\u00a0crecen\u00a0igual\u00a0o\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0que\u00a0en\u00a02009\u00a0y\u00a02010\u00a0pero\u00a0menos\u00a0de\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0crec\u00edan\u00a0en<\/p>\n

\n

30<\/sup>\u00a0En\u00a0el\u00a0apartado\u00a01.4.1.3\u00a0se\u00a0trat\u00f3\u00a0con\u00a0mayor\u00a0detalle\u00a0este\u00a0punto.<\/p>\n

\n

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2007\u00a0y\u00a02008).\u00a0La\u00a0importancia\u00a0de\u00a0seguir\u00a0con\u00a0detenimiento\u00a0el\u00a0desempe\u00f1o\u00a0industrial\u00a0se\u00a0magnifica\u00a0ante una\u00a0eventual\u00a0desaceleraci\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0actividad,\u00a0que\u00a0podr\u00eda\u00a0imponer\u00a0un\u00a0freno\u00a0a\u00a0la\u00a0contrataci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0personal por\u00a0parte\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0empresas\u00a0del\u00a0sector\u00a0dada\u00a0la\u00a0alta\u00a0correlaci\u00f3n\u00a0entre\u00a0el\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0industrial\u00a0y\u00a0la\u00a0contrataci\u00f3n\u00a0d<\/span>e\u00a0empleo<\/span>31<\/sup>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

1.4.3.2\u00a0Productividad\u00a0industrial\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u00a01.4\u00a0INDUSTRIA La\u00a0industria\u00a0argentina\u00a0contin\u00faa\u00a0siendo\u00a0una\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0ramas\u00a0productivas\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0din\u00e1micas\u00a0e\u00a0impulsoras\u00a0de crecimiento\u00a0econ\u00f3mico.\u00a0En\u00a0los\u00a0\u00faltimos\u00a0nueve\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0experiment\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a0incremento\u00a0sostenido\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0(a\u00a0excepci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0ca\u00edda\u00a0registrada\u00a0en\u00a02009),\u00a0que\u00a0la\u00a0ubica\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0actualidad\u00a0como\u00a0la\u00a0principal actividad\u00a0productiva\u00a0de\u00a0bienes\u00a0en\u00a0nuestro\u00a0pa\u00eds\u00a0con\u00a0una\u00a0participaci\u00f3n\u00a0apenas\u00a0inferior\u00a0al\u00a054%.\u00a0Es\u00a0decir, que\u00a0 por\u00a0 cada\u00a0 peso\u00a0 producido\u00a0 en\u00a0 bienes\u00a0 m\u00e1s\u00a0 de\u00a0 la\u00a0 mitad\u00a0 corresponde\u00a0 al\u00a0 sector\u00a0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":334,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1915"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1915"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1915\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2874,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1915\/revisions\/2874"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/334"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}