{"id":1853,"date":"2014-02-14T05:27:09","date_gmt":"2014-02-14T05:27:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/?p=1853"},"modified":"2014-09-03T17:57:21","modified_gmt":"2014-09-03T17:57:21","slug":"2011-cap-i-iii-nivel-de-actividad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/?p=1853","title":{"rendered":"NIVEL DE ACTIVIDAD"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>1.3\u00a0NIVEL DE ACTIVIDAD<\/strong><\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<strong style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">1.3.1\u00a0La\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0argentina<\/strong><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">Al\u00a0cierre\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0anterior\u00a0edici\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0este\u00a0libro,\u00a0a\u00fan\u00a0no\u00a0se\u00a0ten\u00edan\u00a0cifras\u00a0definitivas\u00a0del\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0del\u00a0<\/span>producto\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02010.\u00a0Finalmente\u00a0la\u00a0actividad\u00a0cerr\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a0muy\u00a0buen\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0creciendo\u00a0por\u00a0encima\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a09\u00a0puntos\u00a0porcentuales\u00a0con\u00a0respecto\u00a0a\u00a02009\u00a0(9,16%)\u00a0y\u00a0alcanzando\u00a0los\u00a01.442.655\u00a0millones\u00a0de\u00a0pesos,\u00a0es\u00a0decir\u00a0unos\u00a035.604 pesos\u00a0por\u00a0habitante.\u00a0En\u00a0el\u00a02011,\u00a0la\u00a0marcha\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0local\u00a0pareci\u00f3\u00a0no\u00a0detener\u00a0el\u00a0impulso\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o anterior\u00a0y\u00a0el\u00a0PBI\u00a0creci\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a09,5%\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0primeros\u00a0tres\u00a0trimestres\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o. La\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0argentina\u00a0cerrar\u00eda\u00a0entonces\u00a0su\u00a0noveno\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0consecutivo\u00a0desde\u00a02003,\u00a0periodo solo\u00a0comparable\u00a0con\u00a0los\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a01881\u20101889,\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0la\u00a0incorporaci\u00f3n\u00a0del\u00a0ferrocarril\u00a0gener\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a0verdadero boom\u00a0econ\u00f3mico,\u00a0y\u00a0con\u00a0los\u00a08\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0que\u00a0fueron\u00a0desde\u00a01902\u00a0a\u00a01910,\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0se\u00a0plasmaron\u00a0los\u00a0beneficios del\u00a0modelo\u00a0agroexportador. Los\u00a0factores\u00a0que\u00a0impulsaron\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0en\u00a0estos\u00a0\u00faltimos\u00a09\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0se\u00a0han\u00a0ido\u00a0modificando\u00a0con\u00a0el\u00a0tiempo. La\u00a0fuerte\u00a0ca\u00edda\u00a0del\u00a0periodo\u00a0recesivo\u00a0desde\u00a01999\u00a0hasta\u00a02002,\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0la\u00a0actividad\u00a0cay\u00f3\u00a0en\u00a0promedio\u00a0un 5%\u00a0anual,\u00a0devino\u00a0en\u00a0una\u00a0energ\u00e9tica\u00a0recuperaci\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02003\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0el\u00a0producto\u00a0se\u00a0increment\u00f3\u00a0un 8,8%.\u00a0Los\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0siguientes\u00a0estuvieron\u00a0marcados\u00a0por\u00a0un\u00a0contexto\u00a0de\u00a0aumentos\u00a0de\u00a0salarios\u00a0reales,\u00a0recuperaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0y\u00a0altos\u00a0precios\u00a0internacionales\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0commodities\u00a0locales.\u00a0Este\u00a0proceso\u00a0pareci\u00f3\u00a0frenarse\u00a0y\u00a0sentir\u00a0el\u00a0impacto\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0crisis\u00a0internacional\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02009,\u00a0sin\u00a0embargo\u00a0tanto\u00a0el\u00a02010\u00a0como\u00a0el\u00a02011 fueron\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0de\u00a0expansi\u00f3n13\u00a0con\u00a0tasas\u00a0por\u00a0encima\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a09\u00a0puntos\u00a0porcentuales.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">De este modo, el crecimiento promedio entre 2011 y 2003 fue de 7,8% anual y el producto pas\u00f3 de 235.235\u00a0millones\u00a0de\u00a0d\u00f3lares\u00a0en\u00a02002\u00a0a\u00a0alcanzar\u00a0454.623\u00a0millones\u00a0de\u00a0d\u00f3lares\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02011,\u00a0es\u00a0decir\u00a0un\u00a0incremento\u00a0de\u00a093%.\u00a0En\u00a0este\u00a0contexto,\u00a0la\u00a0din\u00e1mica\u00a0productiva\u00a0de\u00a02011\u00a0cont\u00f3\u00a0con\u00a0los\u00a0mismos\u00a0impulsos\u00a0del a\u00f1o\u00a0anterior,\u00a0aunque\u00a0la\u00a0tendencia\u00a0fue\u00a0de\u00a0amesetamiento\u00a0en\u00a0las\u00a0tasas\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0(ver\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.18).<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1.3.1\u00a0La\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0argentina\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">Al\u00a0cierre\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0anterior\u00a0edici\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0este\u00a0libro,\u00a0a\u00fan\u00a0no\u00a0se\u00a0ten\u00edan\u00a0cifras\u00a0definitivas\u00a0del\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0del\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">producto\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02010.\u00a0Finalmente\u00a0la\u00a0actividad\u00a0cerr\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a0muy\u00a0buen\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0creciendo\u00a0por\u00a0encima\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a09\u00a0puntos<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0porcentuales\u00a0con\u00a0respecto\u00a0a\u00a02009\u00a0(9,16%)\u00a0y\u00a0alcanzando\u00a0los\u00a01.442.655\u00a0millones\u00a0de\u00a0pesos,\u00a0es\u00a0decir\u00a0unos\u00a035.604 pesos\u00a0por\u00a0habitante.\u00a0En\u00a0el\u00a02011,\u00a0la\u00a0marcha\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0local\u00a0pareci\u00f3\u00a0no\u00a0detener\u00a0el\u00a0impulso\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o anterior\u00a0y\u00a0el\u00a0PBI\u00a0creci\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a09,5%\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0primeros\u00a0tres\u00a0trimestres\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">La\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0argentina\u00a0cerrar\u00eda\u00a0entonces\u00a0su\u00a0noveno\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0consecutivo\u00a0desde\u00a02003,\u00a0periodo solo\u00a0comparable\u00a0con\u00a0los\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a01881\u20101889,\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0la\u00a0incorporaci\u00f3n\u00a0del\u00a0ferrocarril\u00a0gener\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a0verdadero boom\u00a0econ\u00f3mico,\u00a0y\u00a0con\u00a0los\u00a08\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0que\u00a0fueron\u00a0desde\u00a01902\u00a0a\u00a01910,\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0se\u00a0plasmaron\u00a0los\u00a0beneficios del\u00a0modelo\u00a0agroexportador. Los\u00a0factores\u00a0que\u00a0impulsaron\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0en\u00a0estos\u00a0\u00faltimos\u00a09\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0se\u00a0han\u00a0ido\u00a0modificando\u00a0con\u00a0el\u00a0tiempo. La\u00a0fuerte\u00a0ca\u00edda\u00a0del\u00a0periodo\u00a0recesivo\u00a0desde\u00a01999\u00a0hasta\u00a02002,\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0la\u00a0actividad\u00a0cay\u00f3\u00a0en\u00a0promedio\u00a0un 5%\u00a0anual,\u00a0devino\u00a0en\u00a0una\u00a0energ\u00e9tica\u00a0recuperaci\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02003\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0el\u00a0producto\u00a0se\u00a0increment\u00f3\u00a0un 8,8%.\u00a0Los\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0siguientes\u00a0estuvieron\u00a0marcados\u00a0por\u00a0un\u00a0contexto\u00a0de\u00a0aumentos\u00a0de\u00a0salarios\u00a0reales,<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">recuperaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0y\u00a0altos\u00a0precios\u00a0internacionales\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0commodities\u00a0locales.\u00a0Este\u00a0proceso\u00a0pareci\u00f3<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">frenarse\u00a0y\u00a0sentir\u00a0el\u00a0impacto\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0crisis\u00a0internacional\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02009,\u00a0sin\u00a0embargo\u00a0tanto\u00a0el\u00a02010\u00a0como\u00a0el\u00a02011 fueron\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0de\u00a0expansi\u00f3n13\u00a0con\u00a0tasas\u00a0por\u00a0encima\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a09\u00a0puntos\u00a0porcentuales.\u00a0 De\u00a0 este\u00a0 modo,\u00a0 el\u00a0 crecimiento\u00a0 promedio\u00a0 entre\u00a0 2011\u00a0 y\u00a0 2003\u00a0 fue\u00a0 de\u00a0 7,8%\u00a0 anual\u00a0 y\u00a0 el\u00a0 producto\u00a0 pas\u00f3\u00a0 de 235.235\u00a0millones\u00a0de\u00a0d\u00f3lares\u00a0en\u00a02002\u00a0a\u00a0alcanzar\u00a0454.623\u00a0millones\u00a0de\u00a0d\u00f3lares\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02011,\u00a0es\u00a0decir\u00a0un<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">incremento\u00a0de\u00a093%.\u00a0En\u00a0este\u00a0contexto,\u00a0la\u00a0din\u00e1mica\u00a0productiva\u00a0de\u00a02011\u00a0cont\u00f3\u00a0con\u00a0los\u00a0mismos\u00a0impulsos\u00a0del a\u00f1o\u00a0anterior,\u00a0aunque\u00a0la\u00a0tendencia\u00a0fue\u00a0de\u00a0amesetamiento\u00a0en\u00a0las\u00a0tasas\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0(ver\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.18).<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<sup style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">13<\/sup><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">\u00a0Estrictamente,\u00a0se\u00a0puede\u00a0hablar\u00a0de\u00a0recuperaci\u00f3n\u00a0hasta\u00a0el\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a02005\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0se\u00a0alcanzaron\u00a0los\u00a0m\u00e1ximos\u00a0niveles\u00a0de\u00a01998.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: ES-AR; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;\">Desde\u00a0entonces\u00a0se\u00a0ha\u00a0estado\u00a0en\u00a0presencia\u00a0de\u00a0un\u00a0proceso\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" size-full wp-image-321\" style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\" src=\"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/2011\/023.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"505\" height=\"345\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">Nuevamente\u00a0las\u00a0actividades\u00a0relacionadas\u00a0con\u00a0la\u00a0producci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0servicios\u00a0fueron\u00a0las\u00a0que\u00a0impulsaron\u00a0la actividad\u00a0en\u00a0mayor\u00a0proporci\u00f3n.\u00a0En\u00a0este\u00a0sentido\u00a0fue\u00a0el\u00a0comercio\u00a0privado,\u00a0plasmado\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0desempe\u00f1o de\u00a0sus\u00a0principales\u00a0indicadores,\u00a0el\u00a0sector\u00a0que\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0contribuy\u00f3\u00a0a\u00a0este\u00a0crecimiento,\u00a0representando\u00a0un 26%\u00a0del\u00a0total.\u00a0Asimismo,\u00a0la\u00a0Intermediaci\u00f3n\u00a0Financiera\u00a0explic\u00f3\u00a0tambi\u00e9n\u00a0una\u00a0gran\u00a0parte\u00a0del\u00a0incremento\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">alcanzando\u00a0el\u00a015%\u00a0(ver\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.19).\u00a0.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" size-full wp-image-322\" style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\" src=\"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/2011\/024.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"594\" height=\"436\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tambi\u00e9n\u00a0se\u00a0puede\u00a0apreciar\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0mismo\u00a0gr\u00e1fico,\u00a0como\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0manufacturera\u00a0y\u00a0el\u00a0sector\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">agropecuario\u00a0explicaron\u00a0un\u00a030%\u00a0del\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0de\u00a02011,\u00a0alcanzando\u00a0el\u00a023%\u00a0y\u00a0el\u00a07%\u00a0respectivamente.\u00a0En las\u00a0secciones\u00a0\u00a01.4\u00a0y\u00a01.7\u00a0\u00a0se\u00a0presentar\u00e1\u00a0un\u00a0an\u00e1lisis\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0detallado\u00a0del\u00a0desempe\u00f1o\u00a0de\u00a0estos\u00a0sectores. En\u00a0 esta\u00a0 l\u00ednea,\u00a0 los\u00a0 indicadores\u00a0 mensuales\u00a0 de\u00a0 actividad\u00a0 de\u00a0 los\u00a0 cuales\u00a0 se\u00a0 pueden\u00a0 obtener\u00a0 datos\u00a0 m\u00e1s cercanos\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0tiempo,\u00a0llevaban\u00a0acumulando\u00a0hasta\u00a0diciembre\u00a0un\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0del\u00a08,8%,\u00a0seg\u00fan\u00a0EMAE. Por\u00a0su\u00a0parte,\u00a0el\u00a0IRNA\u00a0(Impuestos\u00a0Relacionados\u00a0al\u00a0Nivel\u00a0de\u00a0Actividad)\u00a0aument\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a07,4%\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02011;\u00a0y\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">con\u00a0un\u00a0panorama\u00a0menos\u00a0optimista,\u00a0el\u00a0IGA\u00a0(Indicador\u00a0General\u00a0de\u00a0Actividad)\u00a0estimado\u00a0por\u00a0la\u00a0consultora\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">de\u00a0Orlando\u00a0J.\u00a0Ferreres\u00a0creci\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a05,8%\u00a0(ver\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.20).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" size-full wp-image-323\" src=\"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/2011\/025.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"587\" height=\"383\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">No\u00a0obstante,\u00a0el\u00a0Indicador\u00a0L\u00edder\u00a0elaborado\u00a0por\u00a0la\u00a0Universidad\u00a0Torcuato\u00a0Di\u00a0Tella\u00a0(UTDT),\u00a0cuyo\u00a0principal objetivo\u00a0es\u00a0anticipar\u00a0puntos\u00a0de\u00a0giro,\u00a0es\u00a0decir\u00a0momentos\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0tiempo\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0la\u00a0actividad\u00a0econ\u00f3mica<span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">\u00a0pasa\u00a0de\u00a0una\u00a0fase\u00a0recesiva\u00a0a\u00a0una\u00a0expansiva\u00a0o\u00a0viceversa,\u00a0ha\u00a0venido\u00a0adelantando\u00a0a\u00a0lo\u00a0largo\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o una\u00a0desaceleraci\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0actividad.\u00a0En\u00a0el\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.21\u00a0se\u00a0puede\u00a0apreciar\u00a0como\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0primer\u00a0trimestre\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">de\u00a0 2011\u00a0 el\u00a0 indicador\u00a0 mostr\u00f3\u00a0 un\u00a0 quiebre\u00a0 en\u00a0 la\u00a0 tendencia\u00a0 creciente\u00a0 que\u00a0 ven\u00eda\u00a0 manteniendo\u00a0 desde\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">fines\u00a0de\u00a02009,\u00a0inclusive\u00a0a\u00a0fin\u00a0de\u00a0a\u00f1o,\u00a0en\u00a0particular\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0meses\u00a0de\u00a0noviembre\u00a0y\u00a0de\u00a0diciembre,\u00a0el\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">\u00cdndice\u00a0cay\u00f3\u00a0por\u00a0primera\u00a0vez\u00a0despu\u00e9s\u00a0de\u00a0casi\u00a0dos\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0interanual.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" size-full wp-image-324\" src=\"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/2011\/026.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"568\" height=\"423\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Vale\u00a0la\u00a0pena\u00a0aclarar\u00a0que\u00a0el\u00a0impacto\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0indicadores\u00a0mensuales\u00a0de\u00a0actividad\u00a0no\u00a0se\u00a0ha\u00a0hecho\u00a0pre\u2010<br \/>\nsente\u00a0y\u00a0aunque\u00a0a\u00a0menor\u00a0tasa,\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0ha\u00a0continuado\u00a0sus\u00a0incrementos.\u00a0El\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.22,\u00a0muestra<br \/>\nsin\u00a0embargo\u00a0que\u00a0el\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0series\u00a0fue\u00a0desigual.\u00a0La\u00a0Intermediaci\u00f3n\u00a0Financiera\u00a0exhibi\u00f3\u00a0un<br \/>\ncrecimiento\u00a0interanual\u00a0por\u00a0encima\u00a0del\u00a020%,\u00a0muy\u00a0por\u00a0encima\u00a0del\u00a0comportamiento\u00a0del\u00a0resto\u00a0de\u00a0las<br \/>\nseries\u00a0 que\u00a0 variaron\u00a0 entre\u00a0 los\u00a0 4\u00a0 y\u00a0 7\u00a0 puntos\u00a0 porcentuales.\u00a0 Por\u00a0 el\u00a0 contrario,\u00a0 la\u00a0 actividad\u00a0 de\u00a0 Minas\u00a0 y<br \/>\nCanteras\u00a0fue\u00a0la\u00a0\u00fanica\u00a0que\u00a0mostr\u00f3\u00a0una\u00a0ca\u00edda\u00a0del\u00a0orden\u00a0del\u00a05,8%\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02011<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" size-full wp-image-325\" src=\"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/2011\/027.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"491\" height=\"355\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" size-full wp-image-327\" src=\"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/2011\/028.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"557\" height=\"711\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<sup style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">14<\/sup><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">\u00a0Indicador\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0Actividad\u00a0Econ\u00f3mica\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0Provincia\u00a0de\u00a0C\u00f3rdoba,\u00a0desarrollado\u00a0como\u00a0proyecto\u00a0de\u00a0\u201cTesis\u00a0de\u00a0Maestr\u00eda\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">Universidad\u00a0Nacional\u00a0de\u00a0Tucum\u00e1n,\u00a0y\u00a0desde\u00a0el\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a02010\u00a0se\u00a0viene\u00a0actualizando\u00a0y\u00a0mejorando\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0Instituto\u00a0de\u00a0Investigaciones\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">Econ\u00f3micas\u00a0(IIE)\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0Bolsa\u00a0de\u00a0Comercio\u00a0de\u00a0C\u00f3rdoba.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup>15<\/sup>\u00a0De\u00a0acuerdo\u00a0con\u00a0las\u00a0cifras\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0Direcci\u00f3n\u00a0Provincial\u00a0de\u00a0Estad\u00edsticas\u00a0y\u00a0Censos,\u00a0la\u00a0composici\u00f3n\u00a0del\u00a0PBG\u00a0del\u00a0departamento\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">Capital\u00a0al\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a02003\u00a0era\u00a0el\u00a0siguiente:\u00a0Industria\u00a020%,\u00a0Comercio\u00a0mayorista\u00a0y\u00a0Minorista\u00a024%,\u00a0Actividades\u00a0inmobiliarias,\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">empresariales\u00a0y\u00a0de\u00a0alquiler\u00a018%,\u00a0transporte\u00a0y\u00a0comunicaciones\u00a07.5%\u00a0y\u00a0Administraci\u00f3n\u00a0P\u00fablica\u00a06.7%.<\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">\u00a0Se\u00a0aclara\u00a0que\u00a0las\u00a0cifras\u00a0son\u00a0aproximadas\u00a0por\u00a0efecto\u00a0del\u00a0redondeo.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" size-full wp-image-328\" src=\"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/2011\/029.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"482\" height=\"464\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">El\u00a0comportamiento\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0series\u00a0del\u00a0IAECC\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02010,\u00a0\u00faltimo\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0con\u00a0informaci\u00f3n\u00a0disponible,\u00a0fue dispar.\u00a0Mientras\u00a0que\u00a0los\u00a0patentamientos\u00a0de\u00a0autos\u00a0crecieron\u00a0por\u00a0encima\u00a0del\u00a030%,\u00a0las<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">remuneraciones\u00a0privadas\u00a0lo\u00a0hicieron\u00a0al\u00a07,9%.\u00a0Por\u00a0otro\u00a0lado,\u00a0la\u00a0construcci\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0ciudad\u00a0aument\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a05,9%,\u00a0cer\u2010<br \/>\ncano\u00a0al\u00a0nivel\u00a0del\u00a0indicador\u00a0general,\u00a0mientras\u00a0que\u00a0el\u00a0empleo\u00a0lo\u00a0hizo\u00a0a\u00a0una\u00a0tasa\u00a0del\u00a05%.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<sup style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">16<\/sup><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">\u00a0Existen\u00a0algunas\u00a0demoras\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0recolecci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0datos.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><sup>17<\/sup>Tesis\u00a0de\u00a0Maestr\u00eda\u00a0en\u00a0Econom\u00eda\u00a0de\u00a0Andr\u00e9s\u00a0David\u00a0Michel\u00a0Rivero\u00a0y\u00a0Proyecto\u00a0Ciclos\u00a0Econ\u00f3micos\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0UNT.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<strong style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">\u00a0 1.3.2\u00a0Indicadores\u00a0de\u00a0Consumo<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">Como\u00a0 se\u00a0 mencion\u00f3\u00a0 anteriormente,\u00a0 el\u00a0consumo\u00a0 privado\u00a0fue\u00a0 un\u00a0 factor\u00a0preponderante\u00a0 a\u00a0 la\u00a0 hora\u00a0de explicar\u00a0 el\u00a0 crecimiento\u00a0 de\u00a0 2011.\u00a0 Representando\u00a0 un\u00a0 60%\u00a0 del\u00a0 producto,\u00a0 el\u00a0 desempe\u00f1o\u00a0 del\u00a0 mismo determin\u00f3\u00a0gran\u00a0parte\u00a0del\u00a0comportamiento\u00a0productivo\u00a0del\u00a0periodo.\u00a0En\u00a0el\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0que\u00a0pas\u00f3,\u00a0los\u00a0impulsos consumistas\u00a0encontraron\u00a0su\u00a0explicaci\u00f3n\u00a0entre\u00a0otras\u00a0cosas\u00a0en\u00a0las\u00a0tasas\u00a0de\u00a0inter\u00e9s\u00a0reales\u00a0negativas,\u00a0la\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">apreciaci\u00f3n\u00a0del\u00a0tipo\u00a0de\u00a0cambio\u00a0y\u00a0la\u00a0inflaci\u00f3n\u00a0desestimulando\u00a0el\u00a0ahorro. Al\u00a0igual\u00a0que\u00a0los\u00a0indicadores\u00a0de\u00a0actividad,\u00a0el\u00a0comportamiento\u00a0del\u00a0consumo\u00a0privado\u00a0no\u00a0fue\u00a0equilibrado y\u00a0 su tendencia\u00a0 fue\u00a0 de\u00a0 amesentamiento.\u00a0 Claramente\u00a0 existieron\u00a0 sectores\u00a0 que\u00a0 experimentaron\u00a0 un verdadero\u00a0boom\u00a0econ\u00f3mico\u00a0como\u00a0el\u00a0automotriz,\u00a0plasmado\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0fuerte\u00a0incremento\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0patentamientos,\u00a0 que\u00a0 mostr\u00f3\u00a0 una\u00a0 variaci\u00f3n\u00a0 interanual\u00a0 del\u00a0 29,4%\u00a0 con\u00a0 respecto\u00a0 a\u00a0 2010,\u00a0 alcanzando\u00a0 las 857.983\u00a0unidades\u00a0(Ver\u00a0apartado\u00a01.4.2.2).\u00a0Sin\u00a0embargo,\u00a0este\u00a0comportamiento\u00a0no\u00a0se\u00a0observ\u00f3\u00a0en\u00a0otras actividades.\u00a0Las\u00a0Ventas\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0Centros\u00a0de\u00a0Compras\u00a0(Shoppings)\u00a0y\u00a0las\u00a0Ventas\u00a0en\u00a0Supermercados,<span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">\u00a0mostraron<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">una\u00a0tendencia\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0conservadora\u00a0aunque\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0con\u00a0tasas\u00a0del\u00a08%\u00a0y\u00a0del\u00a04,7%\u00a0respec<\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">tivamente.\u00a0Esta\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">asimetr\u00eda\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0distribuci\u00f3n\u00a0se\u00a0hizo\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0evidente\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0caso\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0venta\u00a0de\u00a0electro<\/span><span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">dom\u00e9sticos,\u00a0donde\u00a0la\u00a0variaci\u00f3n\u00a0interanual\u00a0fue\u00a0de\u00a0un\u00a02,2%\u00a0(ver\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.23).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" size-full wp-image-329\" src=\"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/2011\/030.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"481\" height=\"363\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">En\u00a0este\u00a0sentido,\u00a0algunos\u00a0indicadores\u00a0de\u00a0consumo\u00a0mostraron\u00a0se\u00f1ales\u00a0de\u00a0ralentizaci\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02011.\u00a0El crecimiento\u00a0 de\u00a0 las\u00a0 ventas\u00a0 en\u00a0 Centros\u00a0 de\u00a0 Compras\u00a0 alcanz\u00f3\u00a0 un\u00a0 8%,\u00a0 mientras\u00a0 que\u00a0 en\u00a0 el\u00a0 2010\u00a0 hab\u00eda tenido\u00a0 una\u00a0 variaci\u00f3n\u00a0 interanual\u00a0 de\u00a0 14,2%.\u00a0 Por\u00a0 su\u00a0 parte,\u00a0 las\u00a0 ventas\u00a0 de\u00a0 supermercado\u00a0 que\u00a0 hab\u00edan crecido\u00a0un\u00a04,7%\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02010,\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02011\u00a0mantuvieron\u00a0ese\u00a0comportamiento\u00a0alcanzando\u00a0el\u00a04,8%.\u00a0En\u00a0el caso\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0Ventas\u00a0Minoristas,\u00a0pese\u00a0a\u00a0que\u00a0no\u00a0se\u00a0repitieron\u00a0las\u00a0tasas\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0de\u00a0mediados\u00a0de 2010,\u00a0este\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0cerr\u00f3\u00a06,8%\u00a0por\u00a0encima\u00a0del\u00a06,2%\u00a0del\u00a02010\u00a0(ver\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.24).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" size-full wp-image-330\" style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\" src=\"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/2011\/031.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"477\" height=\"324\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">El\u00a0fomento\u00a0consumo\u00a0ha\u00a0encontrado\u00a0en\u00a0parte\u00a0explicaci\u00f3n\u00a0tambi\u00e9n\u00a0por\u00a0el\u00a0fuerte\u00a0impulso\u00a0que\u00a0propici\u00f3 el\u00a0sistema\u00a0financiero\u00a0local.\u00a0Los\u00a0cr\u00e9ditos\u00a0al\u00a0consumo\u00a0(personales\u00a0+\u00a0tarjetas)\u00a0pasaron\u00a0de\u00a0representar un\u00a0poco\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0del\u00a015%\u00a0en\u00a02003\u00a0a\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0del\u00a040%\u00a0en\u00a02011\u00a0del\u00a0total\u00a0de\u00a0pr\u00e9stamos\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0entidades<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">financieras,\u00a0respondiendo\u00a0principalmente\u00a0a\u00a0la\u00a0din\u00e1mica\u00a0experimentada\u00a0por\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0donde\u00a0el<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">consumo\u00a0se\u00a0erigi\u00f3\u00a0como\u00a0uno\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0impulsores\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0actividad.\u00a0Este\u00a0aumento\u00a0ha\u00a0ido\u00a0acompa\u00f1ado\u00a0por\u00a0una disminuci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0participaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0cr\u00e9ditos\u00a0con\u00a0garant\u00eda\u00a0real\u00a0(hipotecarios\u00a0+\u00a0prendarios)\u00a0mientras que\u00a0los\u00a0cr\u00e9ditos\u00a0comerciales\u00a0han\u00a0mantenido\u00a0su\u00a0participaci\u00f3n\u00a0(cercana\u00a0al\u00a041%).<br \/>\nLas\u00a0l\u00edneas\u00a0comerciales\u00a0y\u00a0de\u00a0consumo\u00a0explicaron\u00a0la\u00a0mayor\u00a0parte\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0incrementos\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0pr\u00e9stamos\u00a0al sector\u00a0privado\u00a0en\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0va\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o,\u00a0donde\u00a0se\u00a0observaron\u00a0aumentos\u00a0del\u00a024,1%\u00a0y\u00a018,8%\u00a0respectivamente,<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0mientras\u00a0las\u00a0l\u00edneas\u00a0de\u00a0garant\u00eda\u00a0real\u00a0crecieron\u00a0un\u00a010,7%,\u00a0en\u00a0t\u00e9rminos\u00a0reales\u00a0(ver\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.25).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" size-full wp-image-331\" style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\" src=\"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/2011\/032.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"523\" height=\"418\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Dentro\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0dos\u00a0l\u00edneas\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0relevantes\u00a0como\u00a0son\u00a0consumo\u00a0y\u00a0comerciales,\u00a0los\u00a0rubros\u00a0de<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">comportamiento\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0din\u00e1mico\u00a0fueron\u00a0las\u00a0tarjetas\u00a0de\u00a0cr\u00e9dito\u00a0y\u00a0el\u00a0descuento\u00a0de\u00a0documentos,\u00a0que\u00a0en\u00a0promedio<br \/>\ncrecieron\u00a0\u00a0en\u00a02011\u00a0un\u00a048,4%\u00a0y\u00a061,5%\u00a0respectivamente\u00a0en\u00a0t\u00e9rminos\u00a0nominales.<br \/>\nEn\u00a0este\u00a0sentido,\u00a0se\u00a0puede\u00a0apreciar\u00a0como\u00a0el\u00a0sector\u00a0financiero\u00a0se\u00a0ha\u00a0volcado\u00a0particularmente\u00a0a<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0financiar\u00a0el\u00a0consumo.\u00a0Los\u00a0incentivos\u00a0responden\u00a0principalmente\u00a0a\u00a0la\u00a0alta\u00a0inflaci\u00f3n,\u00a0repercutiendo\u00a0en\u00a0tasas de\u00a0inter\u00e9s\u00a0reales\u00a0negativas\u00a0excepto\u00a0para\u00a0estas\u00a0l\u00edneas\u00a0de\u00a0cr\u00e9dito,\u00a0ya\u00a0que\u00a0tal\u00a0como\u00a0se\u00a0observa\u00a0en\u00a0el<br \/>\nGr\u00e1fico\u00a01.26,\u00a0son\u00a0los\u00a0\u00fanicos\u00a0instrumentos\u00a0que\u00a0en\u00a0todo\u00a0el\u00a0periodo\u00a0analizado\u00a0ofrecieron\u00a0tasas\u00a0de<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">inter\u00e9s\u00a0mayores\u00a0a\u00a0la\u00a0tasa\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0precios,\u00a0del\u00a0orden\u00a0del\u00a023,2%\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02011.\u00a0La\u00a0restricci\u00f3n<br \/>\na\u00a0la\u00a0compra\u00a0de\u00a0divisas\u00a0a\u00a0fin\u00a0de\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0fren\u00f3\u00a0la\u00a0entrada\u00a0de\u00a0dep\u00f3sitos\u00a0y\u00a0presion\u00f3\u00a0las\u00a0tasas\u00a0de\u00a0inter\u00e9s\u00a0y<br \/>\nalgunas\u00a0l\u00edneas\u00a0recuperaron\u00a0valores\u00a0reales\u00a0positivos.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" size-full wp-image-332\" style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\" src=\"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/2011\/033.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"555\" height=\"389\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">No\u00a0obstante,\u00a0surge\u00a0el\u00a0interrogante\u00a0de\u00a0cu\u00e1l\u00a0es\u00a0el\u00a0l\u00edmite\u00a0de\u00a0endeudamiento\u00a0que\u00a0tienen\u00a0las\u00a0familias.\u00a0En\u00a0el Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.27,\u00a0se\u00a0realiza\u00a0un\u00a0an\u00e1lisis\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0entre\u00a0pr\u00e9stamos\u00a0y\u00a0masa\u00a0salarial,\u00a0aproximados\u00a0a\u00a0trav\u00e9s de\u00a0la\u00a0masa\u00a0salarial,\u00a0y\u00a0el\u00a0nivel\u00a0de\u00a0endeudamiento\u00a0actual\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0mismas.\u00a0Como\u00a0se\u00a0observa\u00a0claramente, actualmente\u00a0la\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0entre\u00a0pr\u00e9stamos\u00a0e\u00a0ingresos\u00a0se\u00a0encuentra\u00a0en\u00a0niveles\u00a0que\u00a0oscilan\u00a0entre\u00a0el\u00a020%\u00a0y el\u00a025%\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0masa\u00a0salarial,\u00a0casi\u00a0diez\u00a0puntos\u00a0por\u00a0debajo\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0comparaci\u00f3n\u00a0con\u00a0la\u00a0d\u00e9cada\u00a0del\u00a0noventa\u00a0en donde\u00a0el\u00a0sector\u00a0vivi\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a0verdadero\u00a0boom,\u00a0que\u00a0se\u00a0tradujo\u00a0en\u00a0un\u00a0alto\u00a0nivel\u00a0de\u00a0deuda.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" size-full wp-image-333\" src=\"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/2011\/034.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"504\" height=\"332\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Adem\u00e1s,\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0comparaci\u00f3n\u00a0con\u00a0otros\u00a0pa\u00edses\u00a0de\u00a0Latinoam\u00e9rica,\u00a0el\u00a0nivel\u00a0de\u00a0endeudamiento\u00a0es<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">relativamente\u00a0bajo,\u00a0en\u00a0parte\u00a0debido\u00a0al\u00a0enanismo\u00a0del\u00a0sistema\u00a0financiero\u00a0local.\u00a0La\u00a0deuda\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0familias\u00a0en relaci\u00f3n\u00a0al\u00a0PBI,\u00a0alcanza\u00a0un\u00a06,2%\u00a0en\u00a0Argentina,\u00a0mientras\u00a0que\u00a0para\u00a0Brasil\u00a0esta\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0es\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0del\u00a0doble<br \/>\nalcanzando\u00a0un\u00a013,2%.\u00a0Esta\u00a0comparaci\u00f3n\u00a0es\u00a0a\u00fan\u00a0m\u00e1s\u00a0desventajosa\u00a0si\u00a0se\u00a0la\u00a0realiza\u00a0contra\u00a0el\u00a0promedio de\u00a0Latinoam\u00e9rica\u00a0y\u00a0contra\u00a0el\u00a0promedio\u00a0de\u00a0pa\u00edses\u00a0desarrollados\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0esta\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0alcanza\u00a0m\u00e1s<br \/>\ndel\u00a080%\u00a0del\u00a0PBI\u00a0(ver\u00a0Gr\u00e1fico\u00a01.28).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" size-full wp-image-334\" src=\"http:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/2011\/035.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"513\" height=\"340\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">Finalmente,\u00a0vale\u00a0la\u00a0pena\u00a0destacar\u00a0las\u00a0ventajas\u00a0y\u00a0desventajas\u00a0a\u00a0futuro\u00a0que\u00a0presenta\u00a0el\u00a0sistema\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">financiero\u00a0local\u00a0a\u00a0la\u00a0hora\u00a0de\u00a0expandirse18.\u00a0Por\u00a0el\u00a0lado\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0fortalezas\u00a0se\u00a0encuentra\u00a0el\u00a0alto\u00a0nivel\u00a0de\u00a0fondeo proveniente\u00a0de\u00a0dep\u00f3sitos\u00a0privados,\u00a0donde\u00a0alcanza\u00a0aproximadamente\u00a0el\u00a080%\u00a0del\u00a0total\u00a0de\u00a0pr\u00e9stamos, pese\u00a0a\u00a0que\u00a0tiende\u00a0a\u00a0ser\u00a0de\u00a0corto\u00a0plazo.\u00a0Adem\u00e1s\u00a0los\u00a0principales\u00a0destinos\u00a0de\u00a0estos\u00a0fondos\u00a0son<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">pr\u00e9stamos\u00a0al\u00a0consumo\u00a0en\u00a0general\u00a0de\u00a0corto\u00a0plazo\u00a0con\u00a0suficiente\u00a0respaldo\u00a0de\u00a0liquidez.\u00a0Finalmente,\u00a0la<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">potencialidad\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0en\u00a0relaci\u00f3n\u00a0al\u00a0PBI\u00a0es\u00a0muy\u00a0alta\u00a0teniendo\u00a0en\u00a0cuenta\u00a0que\u00a0se\u00a0encuentra\u00a0entre\u00a0los m\u00e1s\u00a0bajos\u00a0de\u00a0Am\u00e9rica\u00a0Latina.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Relacionado\u00a0con\u00a0lo\u00a0anterior,\u00a0se\u00a0encuentran\u00a0las\u00a0debilidades\u00a0inherentes\u00a0del\u00a0sistema.\u00a0Por\u00a0un\u00a0lado,\u00a0la escasa\u00a0confianza\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0depositantes\u00a0hace\u00a0que\u00a0los\u00a0pr\u00e9stamos\u00a0necesariamente\u00a0busquen\u00a0rentabilidad en\u00a0 el\u00a0 corto\u00a0 plazo,\u00a0 impidiendo\u00a0 la\u00a0 expansi\u00f3n\u00a0 a\u00a0 otras\u00a0 l\u00edneas\u00a0 de\u00a0 cr\u00e9ditos\u00a0 m\u00e1s\u00a0 rezagadas\u00a0 como\u00a0 los pr\u00e9stamos\u00a0de\u00a0Garant\u00eda\u00a0Real\u00a0(prendarios\u00a0e\u00a0hipotecarios).\u00a0En\u00a0esta\u00a0l\u00ednea,\u00a0el\u00a0efecto\u00a0distorsivo\u00a0de\u00a0la inflaci\u00f3n\u00a0se\u00a0traslada\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0altos\u00a0costos\u00a0operativos\u00a0del\u00a0sistema.\u00a0Adem\u00e1s,\u00a0la\u00a0competencia\u00a0por\u00a0la<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">financiaci\u00f3n\u00a0al\u00a0consumo\u00a0se\u00a0ha\u00a0traducido\u00a0en\u00a0ca\u00edda\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0spreads\u00a0bancarios.\u00a0Por\u00a0\u00faltimo,\u00a0este\u00a0sistema\u00a0de rentabilidad\u00a0bancaria\u00a0depende\u00a0excesivamente\u00a0del\u00a0contexto\u00a0econ\u00f3mico\u00a0y\u00a0de\u00a0pol\u00edticas\u00a0econ\u00f3micas<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">relacionadas\u00a0a\u00a0potenciar\u00a0el\u00a0consumo\u00a0privado\u00a0no\u00a0sostenibles\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0largo\u00a0plazo.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1.3.3\u00a0Perspectivas\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0actividad\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">A\u00a0futuro\u00a0se\u00a0plantean\u00a0ciertos\u00a0interrogantes\u00a0sobre\u00a0la\u00a0estructura\u00a0en\u00a0la\u00a0que\u00a0se\u00a0encuentra\u00a0montado\u00a0el sistema\u00a0de\u00a0incentivos\u00a0al\u00a0consumo,\u00a0dada\u00a0la\u00a0carencia\u00a0de\u00a0una\u00a0unidad\u00a0de\u00a0referencia\u00a0para\u00a0las\u00a0transacciones<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">financieras\u00a0nominales\u00a0\u00a0y\u00a0la\u00a0posibilidad\u00a0de\u00a0que\u00a0en\u00a0alg\u00fan\u00a0momento\u00a0el\u00a0gobierno\u00a0de\u00a0turno\u00a0decida<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">18 Mooody\u00b4s Inversor Service,Banking<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"vertical-align: super; line-height: 1.3em;\">System OutlookArgetnina<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: 1.3em;\">enfrentar\u00a0el\u00a0problema\u00a0inflacionario.\u00a0En\u00a0particular,\u00a0el\u00a0sistema\u00a0financiero\u00a0juega\u00a0un\u00a0rol\u00a0clave\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">fomento\u00a0al\u00a0gasto\u00a0de\u00a0las\u00a0familias\u00a0y\u00a0no\u00a0deja\u00a0de\u00a0estar\u00a0exento\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0desequilibrios\u00a0macroecon\u00f3micos. No\u00a0obstante,\u00a0vale\u00a0la\u00a0pena\u00a0rescatar,\u00a0que\u00a0en\u00a0un\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0netamente\u00a0recesivo\u00a0como\u00a0lo\u00a0fue\u00a0el\u00a02009,\u00a0las<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">ventas\u00a0del\u00a0sector\u00a0no\u00a0solo\u00a0no\u00a0cayeron,\u00a0sino\u00a0que\u00a0aumentaron\u00a0un\u00a01,6%\u00a0en\u00a0t\u00e9rminos\u00a0reales\u00a0(un\u00a0crecimiento de\u00a016,4%\u00a0en\u00a0t\u00e9rminos\u00a0nominales).\u00a0Esto\u00a0denota\u00a0cierta\u00a0fortaleza\u00a0del\u00a0mismo\u00a0para\u00a0enfrentar\u00a0los\u00a0periodos\u00a0adversos\u00a0locales.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Por\u00a0otro\u00a0lado,\u00a0no\u00a0se\u00a0esperan\u00a0abruptos\u00a0cambios\u00a0en\u00a0pol\u00edtica\u00a0econ\u00f3mica\u00a0a\u00a0futuro\u00a0aunque\u00a0si\u00a0ciertas<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">correcciones\u00a0en\u00a0aspectos\u00a0macroecon\u00f3micos\u00a0claves\u00a0como\u00a0lo\u00a0fiscal,\u00a0comercial\u00a0y\u00a0cambiario\u00a0lo\u00a0que\u00a0podr\u00eda tener\u00a0su\u00a0impacto\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a0nivel\u00a0de\u00a0actividad\u00a0local.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1.3\u00a0NIVEL DE ACTIVIDAD \u00a01.3.1\u00a0La\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0argentina\u00a0 Al\u00a0cierre\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0anterior\u00a0edici\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0este\u00a0libro,\u00a0a\u00fan\u00a0no\u00a0se\u00a0ten\u00edan\u00a0cifras\u00a0definitivas\u00a0del\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0del\u00a0producto\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02010.\u00a0Finalmente\u00a0la\u00a0actividad\u00a0cerr\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a0muy\u00a0buen\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0creciendo\u00a0por\u00a0encima\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a09\u00a0puntos\u00a0porcentuales\u00a0con\u00a0respecto\u00a0a\u00a02009\u00a0(9,16%)\u00a0y\u00a0alcanzando\u00a0los\u00a01.442.655\u00a0millones\u00a0de\u00a0pesos,\u00a0es\u00a0decir\u00a0unos\u00a035.604 pesos\u00a0por\u00a0habitante.\u00a0En\u00a0el\u00a02011,\u00a0la\u00a0marcha\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0local\u00a0pareci\u00f3\u00a0no\u00a0detener\u00a0el\u00a0impulso\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o anterior\u00a0y\u00a0el\u00a0PBI\u00a0creci\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a09,5%\u00a0en\u00a0los\u00a0primeros\u00a0tres\u00a0trimestres\u00a0del\u00a0a\u00f1o. La\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0argentina\u00a0cerrar\u00eda\u00a0entonces\u00a0su\u00a0noveno\u00a0a\u00f1o\u00a0de\u00a0crecimiento\u00a0consecutivo\u00a0desde\u00a02003,\u00a0periodo solo\u00a0comparable\u00a0con\u00a0los\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a01881\u20101889,\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0la\u00a0incorporaci\u00f3n\u00a0del\u00a0ferrocarril\u00a0gener\u00f3\u00a0un\u00a0verdadero boom\u00a0econ\u00f3mico,\u00a0y\u00a0con\u00a0los\u00a08\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0que\u00a0fueron\u00a0desde\u00a01902\u00a0a\u00a01910,\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0se\u00a0plasmaron\u00a0los\u00a0beneficios del\u00a0modelo\u00a0agroexportador. Los\u00a0factores\u00a0que\u00a0impulsaron\u00a0la\u00a0econom\u00eda\u00a0en\u00a0estos\u00a0\u00faltimos\u00a09\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0se\u00a0han\u00a0ido\u00a0modificando\u00a0con\u00a0el\u00a0tiempo. La\u00a0fuerte\u00a0ca\u00edda\u00a0del\u00a0periodo\u00a0recesivo\u00a0desde\u00a01999\u00a0hasta\u00a02002,\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0la\u00a0actividad\u00a0cay\u00f3\u00a0en\u00a0promedio\u00a0un 5%\u00a0anual,\u00a0devino\u00a0en\u00a0una\u00a0energ\u00e9tica\u00a0recuperaci\u00f3n\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02003\u00a0en\u00a0donde\u00a0el\u00a0producto\u00a0se\u00a0increment\u00f3\u00a0un 8,8%.\u00a0Los\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0siguientes\u00a0estuvieron\u00a0marcados\u00a0por\u00a0un\u00a0contexto\u00a0de\u00a0aumentos\u00a0de\u00a0salarios\u00a0reales,\u00a0recuperaci\u00f3n\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0industria\u00a0y\u00a0altos\u00a0precios\u00a0internacionales\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a0commodities\u00a0locales.\u00a0Este\u00a0proceso\u00a0pareci\u00f3\u00a0frenarse\u00a0y\u00a0sentir\u00a0el\u00a0impacto\u00a0de\u00a0la\u00a0crisis\u00a0internacional\u00a0en\u00a0el\u00a02009,\u00a0sin\u00a0embargo\u00a0tanto\u00a0el\u00a02010\u00a0como\u00a0el\u00a02011 fueron\u00a0a\u00f1os\u00a0de\u00a0expansi\u00f3n13\u00a0con\u00a0tasas\u00a0por\u00a0encima\u00a0de\u00a0los\u00a09\u00a0puntos\u00a0porcentuales. De este [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":321,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1853"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1853"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1853\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2871,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1853\/revisions\/2871"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/321"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bolsacba.com.ar\/buscador\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}